Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of the Launch of the “Soyuz-2.1a” Launch Vehicle with the “Progress MS-29” Cargo Spacecraft in Kazakhstan

The relevance of this study stems from the need for a scientifically sound assessment of the environmental risks associated with launch vehicle launches and for ensuring the environmental safety of areas potentially impacted by space activities. Comprehensive environmental monitoring in the impact areas of rocket parts and adjacent populated areas is particularly important, taking into account natural and climatic factors and the spatial heterogeneity of pollution. This study assessed the environmental impacts of the “Soyuz-2.1a” launch with the ““Progress MS-29”” cargo spacecraft in Kazakhstan based on integrated field research and geoinformation analysis. The study covered the launch area, adjacent populated areas, and the impact zone. A before-after control impact (BACI) design with distance stratification and wind pattern considerations was used to identify post-launch changes. Data containing values below the detection and quantification limits were processed using censored observation analysis methods (ROS Regression on Order Statistics and Kaplan-Meier). A spatial analysis of pollutant distribution was conducted, with thermal field and contour maps generated, revealing the anisotropy of the risk field and localized areas of increased environmental stress. An integrated environmental risk (HQ) metric was used to compare the state of atmospheric air, water, and soil, providing a unified approach to interpreting the results. It was established that the post-launch impact is localized and time-limited, with the greatest sensitivity observed in the soil component in the first period after launch. Measures are recommended to temporarily restrict access to areas of increased stress, conduct primary reclamation, and organize staged environmental monitoring using WebGIS technologies to support management decisions. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of an anisotropic model for assessing environmental risk taking into account wind rose and in the integration of methods for analyzing censored data into a unified system for monitoring environmental components.