Forecasting Assisted Living Demand in Singapore: Evidence-Based ARIMA Projections to Inform Policy and Practice

Singapore’s rapidly ageing population presents significant challenges for healthcare planning and long-term care provision. This study applies ARIMA time-series modeling to forecast the number of older adults requiring assistance in daily living between 2025 and 2035. Using historical population data, nursing home residency figures, and simulated indicators of disability and living arrangements, the model projects assisted living demand rising from 19,741 individuals in 2025 to 29,443 in 2035—a 49.2% increase. While forecasts are conservative due to reliance on informal care from family members and foreign domestic helpers, structural shifts such as smaller family sizes and reduced caregiver availability may drive demand higher. The methodology highlights the importance of accounting for disability prevalence and informal care. Findings underscore the need for strategic planning to expand assisted living infrastructure, workforce capacity, and policy frameworks. Singapore’s case contributes to global literature by illustrating ageing trajectories relevant to other developed societies.