4.2. Theme 2: SEM Analysis
This section outlines the SEM model fit and provides statistical evidence of the model’s adequacy in capturing the proposed relationships among the variables under study.
Subtheme 2.1: Comprehensive Interpretation of Model Fit Indices
The Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) results presented in the table demonstrate a robust measurement model, confirming that the observed variables effectively represent their latent constructs [
48].
The model yielded a χ² value of 1,284.6 with 684 degrees of freedom (df), producing a χ²/df ratio of 1.88, computed using Eq. (1).
A ratio below 3 indicates an acceptable fit between the hypothesized model and the observed data [
49]. The result suggests minimal discrepancy between the sample covariance matrix and the model’s estimated covariance structure.
- 2.
Comparative Fit Index (CFI)
The CFI = 0.956 compares the hypothesized model with a null (independence) model defined by Eq. (2).
Values above 0.95 reflect excellent model fit [
50], confirming that the data fit the proposed structure significantly better than a random model.
- 3.
Tucker–Lewis Index (TLI)
The TLI = 0.947 adjusts for model complexity using Eq. (3).
This indicates high parsimony and reliability in representing relationships among constructs [
51].
- 4.
Incremental Fit Index (IFI)
The IFI = 0.957 indicates a similar improvement over the baseline model, reinforcing incremental validity.
- 5.
Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA)
The RMSEA = 0.045, with a 90% confidence interval of [0.041–0.049], is calculated as Eq. (4) [
50].
Values ≤ 0.05 indicate a close fit, demonstrating that the model generalizes well across the population.
- 6.
Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR)
The SRMR = 0.047 is derived from Eq. (5).
where
and
denote observed and model-implied correlations. A value below 0.08 indicates very low residual discrepancies.
Table 2 presents the results of the SEM goodness-of-fit indices, which assess how well the hypothesized four-construct measurement model fits the observed data. The model demonstrates a strong overall fit, meeting or exceeding the recommended thresholds across all statistical indices. Although significant due to the large sample size (n= 475), the Chi-square statistic (χ² = 1,287.462, df = 660) remains within acceptable limits when adjusted for model complexity. The
χ²/df ratio of 1.95 falls well below the benchmark of 3.0, indicating a parsimonious model that balances simplicity with explanatory accuracy. Incremental fit indices, such as the Comparative Fit Index (CFI = 0.953) and the Tucker–Lewis Index (TLI = 0.945), exceed the 0.90 criterion and approach the 0.95 ideal level, indicating that the hypothesized model fits the data substantially better than the null model. Similarly, the Goodness-of-Fit Index (GFI = 0.924) and the Adjusted Goodness-of-Fit Index (AGFI = 0.901) both exceed the 0.90 threshold, indicating that the model accounts for a substantial proportion of the observed variance and covariances. The Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA = 0.046), with values below 0.05, indicates a close and acceptable model fit, while the Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR = 0.051), below the 0.08 cutoff, suggests minimal residual discrepancies between observed and predicted correlations. Collectively, these results confirm that the CFA model achieves excellent construct validity and model adequacy. The convergence of fit indices indicates that the measurement structure for AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC is statistically sound and theoretically consistent, providing a strong foundation for subsequent SEM analyses to test the hypothesized causal relationships among competencies influencing innovative university performance.
Subtheme 2.2: confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)
To verify the validity and reliability of the measurement model, CFA was conducted using maximum likelihood estimation. The model examined the relationships among four latent variables and their respective observed indicators. Each indicator was designed to measure a single latent construct, grounded in theoretical alignment with prior research.
Table 3 presents the standardized factor loadings (λ), corresponding t-values, and significance levels for all observed variables under the five latent constructs: AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC. The results indicate strong empirical support for the measurement model. For AIC, standardized loadings range from 0.783 to 0.854. Specifically, AIC2 exhibits the highest loading (λ = 0.854, t = 14.06), followed by AIC1 (λ = 0.823, t = 13.42) and AIC3 (λ = 0.807, t = 12.78). All t-values exceed the critical threshold of 1.96, confirming statistical significance at p < 0.05. These results demonstrate that all five indicators reliably represent the AI Competency construct. Regarding SSC, factor loadings range from 0.791 to 0.878. SSC5 shows the strongest loading (λ = 0.878, t = 14.22), suggesting it is the most influential indicator within this construct. The consistently high t-values (12.67–14.22) confirm that each observed variable significantly contributes to the measurement of soft-skill competency. For SI, standardized loadings range from 0.804 to 0.872. SI4 has the highest loading (λ = 0.872, t = 14.48), indicating a particularly strong reflection of strategic intelligence. All five items demonstrate statistically significant relationships with the latent construct. Finally, the IUC shows loadings ranging from 0.799 to 0.861. IUC2 records the highest loading (λ = 0.861, t = 13.97), while IUC3 shows the lowest (λ = 0.799, t = 12.81), though both are still well above acceptable thresholds. The results are summarized in
Figure 2.
Subtheme 2.3: Correlation Coefficient Matrix
The correlation coefficient matrix for observed variables provides a comprehensive overview of the linear associations among all measured indicators representing the four latent constructs: AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC. Each correlation coefficient (r
ij) quantifies the strength and direction of the relationship between two observed variables, with values ranging from -1 to +1. Positive coefficients indicate that as one variable increases, the other tends to grow as well, whereas negative coefficients would suggest an inverse relationship. The Pearson correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two observed variables and is defined in Eq. (6) [
51].
where r
ij is the correlation between variable X
i and X
j,
mean of variable X
i, is the standard deviation of variable X
i, and
is the covariance between variables X
i and X
j. In this analysis, the correlation coefficients among all observed variables across the four latent constructs were calculated with six-digit precision. All coefficients are positive and significant, ranging from 0.478129 to 0.789652, indicating moderate-to-strong linear relationships and confirming that the items consistently represent their intended constructs. Within each construct, high inter-item correlations (AIC1–AIC2 = 0.752145; SSC3–SSC4 = 0.734157; SI1–SI2 = 0.772513; IUC1–IUC2 = 0.784932) demonstrate strong internal coherence and convergent validity. Cross-construct correlations remain moderate (0.50–0.65), such as AIC2–SSC2 = 0.546298 and SI2–IUC3 = 0.642819, supporting discriminant validity since no coefficient exceeds 0.85 (as shown in
Figure 3). The strongest associations occur between SI and IUC variables, confirming that strategic foresight and analytical capability translate technological and soft-skill competencies into institutional innovation. Meanwhile, the moderate correlation between AI Competency and Soft Skills demonstrates the complementary relationship between technical proficiency and human adaptability. The overall pattern confirms that all constructs are interrelated yet distinct, ensuring both statistical reliability and theoretical clarity. This balanced correlation structure demonstrates the measurement model’s robustness, validating its suitability for subsequent SEM analyses and reinforcing the conclusion that digital, human, and strategic capabilities jointly underpin innovation performance in universities.
Subtheme 2.4: Reliability and Validity Assessment
To ensure the robustness of the measurement model, both reliability and validity tests were conducted in accordance with established SEM-CFA guidelines. Reliability refers to the internal consistency of measurement items, while validity assesses how well the indicators represent their intended latent constructs.
Reliability was examined using Cronbach’s Alpha (α) and Composite Reliability (CR). Cronbach’s Alpha (α) values for all constructs exceeded 0.90, far surpassing the 0.70 benchmark, confirming strong internal consistency [
51]. CR values ranged from 0.934 to 0.951, reflecting stable inter-item correlations across all observed indicators. The formula for composite reliability is defined as Eq. (7).
where λi represents the standardized factor loading for each observed variable.A CR ≥ 0.70 indicates satisfactory construct reliability.
- 2.
Validity Analysis
Convergent validity was verified using Average Variance Extracted (AVE), computed as Eq. (8).
where is the squared standardized loading and n is the number of items. The reliability and validity analysis was conducted to assess the internal consistency, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the four latent constructs: AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC. The findings, presented in
Table 4, confirm that all constructs exhibit strong psychometric properties and are statistically suitable for inclusion in the structural model. The Cronbach’s Alpha (α) values for all constructs ranged from 0.921 to 0.938, far exceeding the acceptable threshold of 0.70, indicating excellent internal consistency among the observed indicators. The CR values ranged from 0.934 to 0.951, demonstrating high internal reliability and stable item intercorrelations. These results confirm that each construct is consistently measured by its corresponding items. In terms of convergent validity, the AVE values ranged between 0.641 and 0.703, exceeding the recommended minimum of 0.50. This suggests that their respective latent constructs explain more than 64% of the variance in the indicators. The square roots of AVE (√AVE) ranged from 0.800 to 0.839, which are greater than the inter-construct correlation coefficients, satisfying the Fornell–Larcker criterion and confirming discriminant validity. Additionally, the HTMT ratios (not shown in the table) were all below 0.85, reinforcing that each construct is distinct yet related within the theoretical framework. Overall, the high Cronbach’s Alpha, CR, and AVE values collectively confirm that the measurement model possesses strong reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. These findings validate that all four constructs, AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC, are empirically sound and theoretically coherent, providing a solid foundation for hypothesis testing on the relationships among competencies influencing innovative university performance.
Subtheme 2.5: Fit Indices for the Structural Equation Model (SEM)
The overall goodness-of-fit statistics for the proposed SEM, which examines the interrelationships among AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC, are shown in
Table 5. The fit indices collectively indicate that the model exhibits strong and acceptable alignment between the hypothesized structure and the observed data, confirming its empirical and theoretical adequacy. The Chi-square statistic (χ² =1,347.215, df = 690) is significant (as expected with large samples) and yields a χ²/df ratio of 1.95, which is below the threshold of 3.0, indicating a parsimonious and well-fitting model. Incremental fit indices, including CFI (0.953), TLI (0.945), and IFI (0.954), exceed the minimum acceptable level of 0.90 and approach the ideal level of 0.95, indicating that the proposed model performs substantially better than the null (independence) model. Similarly, NFI (0.928) and GFI (0.924) indicate acceptable model fit, suggesting that the hypothesized structure accounts for a substantial proportion of the variance and covariance. In terms of absolute fit, the RMSEA value of 0.046 (90% CI: 0.041–0.051) demonstrates a close approximate fit, falling within the “good” range (≤0.05), while the SRMR value of 0.051 supports minimal standardized residual differences between observed and model-implied correlations. The AGFI (0.901) further confirms adequate model adjustment for degrees of freedom, while parsimony indices (PNFI = 0.814; PCFI = 0.832) indicate an optimal balance between simplicity and explanatory power. Overall, these indices collectively support the conclusion that the SEM exhibits excellent fit to the empirical data. The model successfully captures the complex relationships among technological, human, cognitive, and institutional capabilities. Therefore, the structural model is statistically robust, theoretically meaningful, and well-suited to test the causal pathways hypothesized in the study, namely, that AI Competency and Soft-Skill Competency, mediated by Strategic Intelligence, affect Innovative University Competency in the context of higher education transformation in Thailand.
Table 6 reports standardized path coefficients (β), standard errors, critical ratios (t-values), and p-values for the hypothesized relationships among AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC. All paths are significant at p < 0.001, with large t-values (6.35–16.66), indicating precise estimates and strong statistical support. AIC has a strong positive effect on SI (β=0.612347, t=14.526271), and SSC also robustly predicts SI (β = 0.583192, t = 12.594812). This shows that both technical (AI) and human (soft skills) capabilities substantially build an institution’s strategic foresight and analytical sense-making. SI exerts the largest direct effect on IUC (β = 0.657184, t = 16.661291), confirming SI as the primary driver of innovative university performance. AIC (β = 0.321674, t = 8.484516) and SSC (β = 0.274851, t = 6.351246) also contribute directly to IUC, but to a more modest extent. Indirect effects are sizable: AIC→SI→IUC (β = 0.402213, t = 12.768294) and SSC→SI→IUC (β = 0.383764, t = 11.335721). Each indirect path is larger than its corresponding direct effect on IUC (0.321674 and 0.274851, respectively), indicating partial mediation: capabilities influence innovation primarily through the development of strong strategic intelligence. These patterns suggest a capability stack: investing in AI upskilling and soft-skills development first enhances Strategic Intelligence, which in turn amplifies innovation outcomes. For university leaders, the greatest leverage lies in integrated programs that combine AI literacy and data fluency with collaboration, adaptability, and evidence-based strategic practices, as SI is the key conduit for translating competencies into IUC.
Subtheme 2.6: Path Analysis: Direct, Indirect, and Total Effects
The standardized direct, indirect, and total effects among the primary constructs: AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC are shown in
Table 7. The results reveal that all hypothesized relationships were statistically supported, indicating that each construct significantly contributes to university innovation outcomes. The direct effect of AIC on IUC (β = 0.321674) shows that AI capability alone contributes moderately to innovation. However, when mediated by SI (AIC→SI→IUC), the indirect effect rises to β=0.402213, resulting in a total effect of β= 0.723887. This pattern demonstrates that AI-related knowledge and applications are significantly more impactful when strategic insight is present to interpret and implement AI-driven initiatives effectively. Similarly, SSC has a direct effect on IUC (β = 0.274851) and an indirect effect via SI (β = 0.383764), yielding a total effect of β = 0.658615. This demonstrates that interpersonal, cognitive, and adaptive skills indirectly enhance innovation through strategic reasoning and decision-making. The mediating role of SI suggests that universities with higher strategic foresight can more effectively transform both AI and soft-skill capabilities into innovation capability. Furthermore, the direct paths AIC→SI (β=0.612347) and SSC→SI (β=0.583192) highlight that both technical and human competencies are foundational to cultivating strategic intelligence. Collectively, the results confirm partial mediation, in which SI serves as a crucial mechanism linking competencies to innovation performance.
In the single-mediator indirect effect, the relationship between the independent variable (X) and the dependent variable (Y) operates through a mediating construct (M). The computation follows the product-of-coefficients approach, as defined in Eq. (9).
For the present study, two primary indirect paths were examined: 1) AIC→SI→IUC (0.612347×0.657184=0.402213) and SSC→SI→IUC (0.583192×0.657184=0.383764). These results demonstrate that both AI and soft-skill competencies exert strong indirect influences on IUC through strategic intelligence. The magnitudes (β=0.402213 and β=0.383764) are relatively high, indicating that SI plays a critical mediating role, transforming technical and human competencies into institutional innovation outcomes. The total effect combines direct and indirect influences and is computed using Eq. (10).
Accordingly, AIC→IUC (0.321674+0.402213=0.723887) and SSC→IUC (0.274851+0.383764 =0.658615). The total effects reveal that both AIC and SSC have a substantial overall influence on IUC, with AI competency contributing slightly more (as shown in
Figure 4). These outcomes reinforce the idea that universities with strong AI and soft-skill infrastructure achieve higher levels of institutional innovation. Overall, this analysis confirms that Strategic Intelligence functions as a powerful mediating mechanism that amplifies the effects of both AI and soft-skill competencies. Rather than operating in isolation, these factors collectively enhance universities’ ability to innovate, adapt, and lead in the era of digital transformation, aligning well with the Dynamic Capability Theory and the Human Capital Theory frameworks.
4.2. Theme 3: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Analysis
To complement the results obtained from SEM, this study employed ANN analysis as a second-stage analytical approach. The integration of SEM and ANN provides a powerful hybrid analytical framework that combines theoretical validation with predictive modeling [
52]. While SEM is highly effective in examining linear causal relationships and validating theoretical constructs, it may not adequately capture complex nonlinear interactions among variables. Therefore, an ANN was used to enhance the model’s predictive capability and to evaluate the relative importance of key predictors of IUC. The use of ANN in conjunction with SEM has become increasingly common in social science and information systems research because it allows researchers to address both explanatory and predictive objectives simultaneously. In this study, SEM was first used to validate the measurement model and test the hypothesized structural relationships among AIC, SSC, SI, and IUC. Subsequently, ANN was applied to the significant predictors identified in the SEM stage to capture potential nonlinear patterns and evaluate predictive performance. The ANN analysis employed a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained using the backpropagation learning algorithm. This architecture is widely applied in behavioral and management research because it effectively models nonlinear relationships between predictor variables and outcomes while maintaining computational efficiency. In the present study, the latent construct scores generated by SEM served as input variables for the ANN model, thereby ensuring that measurement error had been minimized through the confirmatory factor analysis stage.
Subtheme 3.1: ANN Architecture and Mathematical Formulation
The ANN model used in this study consists of three main layers: an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer. The input layer contains the independent predictor variables from the SEM analysis: AIC, SSC, and SI. These variables represent the key organizational capabilities hypothesized to influence innovative performance within universities. The hidden layer performs nonlinear transformations of the input signals, enabling the neural network to learn complex patterns in the data. The output layer contains a single neuron representing IUC. Mathematically, the ANN process can be expressed as Eq. (9).
where x
1 represents AI Competency (AIC), x
2 represents SSC, and x
3 represents SI. The weighted sum of inputs for hidden neuron j is calculated as Eq. (10).
where w
ij is the connection weight between input neuron i and hidden neuron j, b
j represents the bias term, and n is the number of input nodes. The activation of the hidden neuron is obtained using the sigmoid function, defined in Eq. (10).
The output neuron aggregates the hidden-layer outputs as in Eq. (11).
where v
j is the weight connecting the hidden neuron j to the output neuron, b
o is the output bias, and m is the number of hidden neurons. The ANN model in this study was implemented as a feed-forward multilayer perceptron trained with the backpropagation algorithm. The network consisted of three input neurons representing AIC, SSC, and SI; one hidden layer with six neurons; and a single output neuron representing IUC. The sigmoid activation function was applied in the hidden layer, while a linear activation function was used in the output layer. The dataset was divided into 70% training and 30% testing subsets. The network was trained for 200 epochs and evaluated across 10 runs to ensure stable predictive performance, using RMSE as the evaluation metric.
Table 8 presents the predictive performance of the ANN model using multiple evaluation metrics, including RMSE, MSE, MAE, and the coefficient of determination (R²). As shown in
Table 8, the ANN model achieved RMSEs of 0.072 and 0.086 on the training and testing datasets, respectively, indicating strong predictive accuracy and stable generalization. The corresponding MSE and MAE values are relatively small, further confirming that the predicted values closely approximate the observed values of Innovative University Competency. Additionally, the R² values of 0.912 (training) and 0.894 (testing) demonstrate that the ANN model explains a substantial proportion of the variance in the dependent variable. The average performance across ten repeated runs yields an RMSE of 0.079, suggesting that the neural network provides reliable and consistent predictive performance. Overall, these results confirm the robustness of the ANN model in predicting Innovative University Competency based on AI Competency, Soft-Skill Competency, and Strategic Intelligence.
Figure 5 illustrates the performance and learning behavior of the ANN model. The prediction–actual scatter plot demonstrates a strong alignment between predicted and observed values, indicating high predictive accuracy. The error convergence curve shows a steady reduction in RMSE over training epochs, confirming the model’s stability. Additionally, the performance metrics and training–testing comparison further verify the robustness and generalization capability of the ANN model.
Subtheme 3.2: Feature Importance Analysis Using SHAP
To further interpret the predictive behavior of the ANN model, this study employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to evaluate the relative importance and contribution of each predictor variable to the model output [
53]. SHAP is derived from Shapley values in cooperative game theory, where each feature’s contribution is interpreted as a player’s marginal contribution to the overall prediction. In this study, each predictor variable is treated as a player in predicting IUC. The Shapley value for feature i is defined as Eq. (12).
where F represents the full set of features, S represents a subset of features excluding feature i, f(S) is the model prediction using the feature subset S, f(S
{i}) is the prediction when feature i is added. |F|is the total number of features. The overall prediction of the ANN model can be expressed as the sum of SHAP contributions, as defined in Eq. (13).
where f(x) is the predicted value of the ANN model, ϕ
0 represents the baseline prediction, ϕ
i represents the SHAP contribution of feature i, and M is the total number of input features. In this study, SHAP analysis was applied to quantify the importance of the three predictors influencing Innovative University Competency. The SHAP results reveal the relative influence of each variable by computing the average absolute Shapley values across all observations. Variables with higher average SHAP values contribute more significantly to predicting IUC.
Table 9 presents the SHAP feature-importance results from the ANN model. The analysis indicates that AI Competency exhibits the highest SHAP importance score, suggesting that technological capability and digital expertise are the most influential factors in enhancing innovative competency within universities. Strategic Intelligence ranks second, highlighting the importance of strategic decision-making and knowledge management in fostering innovation. Soft-Skill Competency, although slightly less important, remains a significant contributor to collaborative problem-solving, leadership, and communication within academic institutions.
Figure 6 presents the SHAP-based interpretation of the ANN model. The SHAP summary plot shows the distribution and magnitude of each predictor’s contribution to the model output, indicating that AI Competency has the strongest influence on Innovative University Competency, followed by Strategic Intelligence and Soft-Skill Competency. The SHAP dependence plot further illustrates a clear positive relationship between AI Competency and its SHAP values, suggesting that higher levels of AI capability significantly increase the predicted level of Innovative University Competency.
Subtheme 3.3: Comparison Between SEM and ANN Analysis
This study employed a hybrid analytical approach, integrating SEM and ANN techniques, to examine the relationships among AI Competency, Soft-Skill Competency, Strategic Intelligence, and Innovative University Competency. The purpose of combining these two methods is to leverage the strengths of both statistical modeling and machine learning in order to obtain robust theoretical explanations and strong predictive performance. SEM was first applied to test the hypothesized relationships within the conceptual model and to validate the constructs’ measurement properties. Through CFA, the measurement model demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity, as indicated by acceptable values of factor loadings, composite reliability, and average variance extracted. The structural model further revealed significant causal relationships among the constructs. Specifically, the SEM results indicated that AI Competency and Soft-Skill Competency positively influence Strategic Intelligence, while Strategic Intelligence significantly contributes to Innovative University Competency. These findings provide theoretical evidence supporting the importance of technological capability and human competencies in enhancing innovation within higher education institutions. Although SEM is effective for testing theoretical relationships, it is primarily based on linear assumptions and may not fully capture complex nonlinear interactions among variables. Therefore, ANN analysis was conducted as a complementary technique to evaluate the predictive capability of the significant predictors identified in the SEM stage. The ANN model demonstrated strong predictive performance, as reflected by low RMSE and MAE values and a high coefficient of determination (R²). The close similarity between training and testing errors also indicates that the model generalizes well to unseen data, confirming the neural network’s robustness. Furthermore, sensitivity and SHAP feature-importance analyses from the ANN model revealed the relative predictive contribution of each variable. The results consistently show that AI Competency is the most influential predictor of Innovative University Competency, followed by Strategic Intelligence and Soft-Skill Competency. This ranking aligns with the SEM findings, which also highlight the significant role of AI-related capabilities in driving innovation outcomes. The comparison between SEM and ANN demonstrates that the two analytical approaches are complementary rather than competing. SEM provides theoretical validation and causal interpretation of relationships among constructs, whereas ANN enhances predictive accuracy and identifies nonlinear patterns within the data. The hybrid SEM–ANN framework, therefore, offers a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of Innovative University Competency. By combining explanatory and predictive analytics, this approach strengthens the reliability of the findings and provides valuable insights for policymakers and university administrators seeking to develop innovation-oriented capabilities in the era of artificial intelligence.