Submitted:
12 March 2026
Posted:
23 March 2026
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- 1.
- Valuation anchoring: the threshold becomes an attracting manifold. Prices remain pinned at while participation continues to evolve.
- 2.
- Regime switching: trajectories cross the threshold repeatedly, potentially generating endogenous boom–bust dynamics.
- 3.
- Governance stabilization: appropriate supply and responsiveness conditions eliminate cycles and restore convergence.
2. The Platform Ecosystem Model
2.1. Platform Participants, Ecosystem Architecture, and Adoption
- Ecosystem architecture and complementarities.
- Participation value and governance channels:
- Dynamic adjustment and regime dependence.
2.2. Platform Governance, Token Market Design, and Valuation Dynamics
- Governance-controlled effective supply:
- Demand decomposition and regime dependence:
- Transactional demand: Usage demand arises from ecosystem engagement and scales with aggregate participation defined in (4),The function is , strictly decreasing, and satisfies . It captures how valuation translates into effective participation cost. Higher token price increases fee exposure, collateral requirements, staking opportunity cost, or required token holdings per unit of activity. Through (9) and the adoption dynamics (5), platform engagement generates endogenous token demand.
- Speculative and liquidity demand. Speculative demand reflects portfolio holding, security incentives, and liquidity provision,The function is and strictly decreasing, representing downward-sloping asset demand around perceived fundamental or collateral value. The regime parameter scales effective market depth. We assumeso speculative support is stronger in the low-valuation regime. Economically, crossing the credibility threshold may tighten collateral constraints, reduce risk appetite, alter liquidity provision, or trigger compliance-related restrictions, thereby reducing effective speculative depth. Through (11) and (6), valuation itself reshapes market liquidity, introducing a second feedback channel.
- Token market adjustment:
- Regime-wise equilibrium valuation:
2.3. Filippov Formulation and Valuation Anchoring
- Governance geometry at the credibility threshold:
- Valuation anchoring as a governance outcome:
2.4. Planar Mean-Field Reduction
3. Platform Model Analysis and Results
- anchoring regimes in which valuation thresholds coordinate expectations,
- fragility regimes in which thresholds organize endogenous volatility,
- stabilized regimes in which governance design restores convergence.
- (i)
- Positive invariance. is positively invariant under the Filippov dynamics.
- (ii)
- (iii)
-
Regular switching geometry. For every ,so each point is either a transversal crossing () or an attracting sliding point ().
- (iv)
- Non-Zeno regularity. Filippov trajectories in are forward unique and do not exhibit accumulation of switching times in finite time.
- (i)
-
Regular crossing at the threshold. For all ,A sufficient condition is
- (ii)
- Regime-wise differentiability. with bounded derivatives.
- (iii)
- Uniform dissipativity. There exists such that for each ,
4. Discussion
5. Conclusion
Appendix A. Adoption Update Specifications
| ID | Name | Functional form | Platform interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Linear response | Baseline participation adjustment. Representative participation increases linearly when valuation lies below the credibility threshold (entry/expansion region) and decays proportionally when valuation exceeds the threshold (contraction/exit region). This rule serves as a benchmark with monotone incentives and no saturation effects. | |
| A2 | Saturating response | Endogenous saturation under ecosystem crowding. Logistic adjustment captures diminishing marginal incentives near full participation (capacity limits, congestion, or diminishing incremental network benefits) and near zero participation (limited peer reinforcement). Relative to A1, the dynamics slow down near the boundaries even within the same valuation regime. | |
| A3 | Threshold-biased | Exit amplification above the threshold. An additional negative drift accelerates exit once valuation exceeds , capturing loss sensitivity, trust breakdown, compliance frictions, or reputational cascades that make contraction sharper than expansion. | |
| A4 | Hysteretic (two-threshold) | Regime persistence and path dependence. Separate entry and exit thresholds () generate genuine hysteresis, representing persistence in user beliefs, switching costs, governance frictions, or delayed coordination. Within the band, the ecosystem “remembers” its last regime, so valuation changes need not immediately reverse participation incentives. | |
| A5 | Stochastic bandwagon | Social amplification under uncertainty. Multiplicative noise captures endogenous dispersion in participation updates that grows with the “room to move” (i.e. strongest at intermediate adoption). This represents experimentation, peer-driven amplification, and endogenous uncertainty in ecosystem participation that interacts with valuation anchoring. | |
| A6 | Noisy linear | Idiosyncratic shocks around a linear benchmark. Additive noise represents exogenous news shocks, heterogeneous idiosyncratic participation changes, or measurement noise. Relative to A5, uncertainty does not vanish at the boundaries, so small fluctuations can persist even near or . |
Appendix B. Technical Analysis and Proofs
- Step 1: Local regularity away from . For , the system coincides with one of the smooth vector fields or . Because is on , is globally Lipschitz, and are on , each is locally Lipschitz on . Classical ODE theory therefore guarantees local existence and uniqueness of solutions away from .
- Step 2: Filippov regularization on . On the switching manifold , the Filippov set-valued mapis upper semicontinuous with nonempty compact convex values. Moreover, on every compact subset of , both and are bounded, hence F is locally bounded. It follows from Filippov’s existence theorem [16, Th. 1, p. 106] that for every initial condition in there exists at least one absolutely continuous trajectory satisfying almost everywhere.
- Step 3: Forward invariance of . At the boundary points and ,for both regimes . Thus the vector field is tangent to the boundary, and standard viability arguments imply that trajectories cannot exit the interval .
- Step 4: Lower barrier for the price process. By assumption (iv) of Theorem 1,Since and ℓ is bounded on ,uniformly in and . Hence there exists such thatTherefore cannot reach zero in finite time.
- Step 5: Upper barrier for the price process. By assumption (v) of Theorem 1 and monotonicity of ℓ and s, for any and any ,Since , the same inequality holds with . Consequently,Thus cannot exceed once inside .
- Step 6: Global existence. Because and for all forward times, solutions remain in the compact forward-invariant set . Local existence together with boundedness of the vector field implies that solutions extend to all .
- Step 1: Existence of a compact invariant -limit set. By positive invariance of , the trajectory satisfies for all . Since is compact, the forward orbit is precompact. Hence the -limit setis nonempty, compact, connected, and invariant under the Filippov flow.
- Step 2: Regularity of switching and absence of pathological behavior. By assumption (iii), each point of is either a transversal crossing point () or belongs to an attracting sliding segment (). In particular, there are no tangencies or two-fold singularities. Assumption (iv) excludes Zeno accumulation of switching times. Therefore Filippov trajectories in are piecewise with finitely many switching events on each bounded time interval (see [12,16]).
-
Step 3: Exclusion of equilibria and reduction to periodic dynamics. By assumption (ii), there are:
- no equilibria of or in , and
- no pseudo-equilibria of the sliding vector field on .
Hence contains no equilibrium points. Moreover, because switching is regular and non-Zeno, the Filippov system on satisfies the hypotheses of the planar Filippov Poincaré–Bendixson theorem (see [12]), which states that every nonempty compact invariant set without equilibria must be a periodic orbit. Therefore is a periodic orbit contained entirely in . - Step 4: Nonsmooth structure of the orbit. If the periodic orbit intersects , it consists of smooth segments governed by and , connected by transversal switching points and possibly by sliding segments along . Hence the orbit is piecewise smooth and nonsmooth at .
- Step 1: Regular crossing geometry. By assumption (i) of Theorem 4,Hence is a regular crossing manifold: no point on is a sliding or tangency point. Therefore is a closed, piecewise curve that intersects transversally a finite number of times (see [12]).
- Step 2: Decomposition of the enclosed region. Let denote the compact region enclosed by . DecomposeOn each , the vector field is . The boundary of consists of: (i) the portion of lying in regime k, and (ii) transversal interface segments along .
- Step 3: Divergence integration. Applying Green’s theorem on each giveswhere is the outward unit normal on . Summing over yieldsBecause is a periodic orbit, the vector field is tangent to almost everywhere, so on . Along , assumption (i) guarantees regular crossing and absence of sliding. The outward normals of and along the interface are opposite, so the flux contributions across cancel exactly. Therefore,
- Step 4: Dissipativity contradiction. By assumption (iii) of Theorem 4, there exists such thatSince D has positive Lebesgue measure,which contradicts the previous equality. Hence no periodic orbit exists in .
- Step 5: Asymptotic behavior. Compactness and forward invariance of imply that every Filippov trajectory admits a nonempty -limit set. In the absence of periodic orbits, the planar Filippov Poincaré–Bendixson alternative (see [12]) implies that every -limit set contains an equilibrium or pseudo-equilibrium. If equilibria are isolated, convergence is to a single equilibrium point.
Appendix C. Numerical Analysis
| Law | – | – | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1) Linear response | 0.0025 | 0.9965 | 0.0010 | 0.250–0.633 | 0.550–1.002 |
| A2) Saturating response | 0.0032 | 0.9968 | 0.245–0.329 | 0.550–1.000 | |
| A3) Threshold-biased (strong exit) | 0.0026 | 0.9973 | 0.0002 | 0.250–0.595 | 0.550–1.001 |
| A4) Hysteretic (wide band) | 0.0025 | 0.9855 | 0.0121 | –0.871 | 0.550–1.184 |
| A5) Stochastic bandwagon (mult. noise) | 0.0032 | 0.9968 | 0.153–0.380 | 0.550–1.001 | |
| A6) Noisy linear (additive) | 0.0026 | 0.9973 | 0.0001 | 0.247–0.592 | 0.550–1.001 |


| Law | Mean slide share | Mean | SD | Exit to L | Exit to R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1) Linear response | 0.992 | 0.429 | 0.027 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| A2) Saturating response | 0.985 | 0.237 | 0.036 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| A3) Threshold-biased (strong exit) | 0.994 | 0.304 | 0.026 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| A4) Hysteretic (wide band) | 0.991 | 0.460 | 0.028 | 0.00 | 0.00 |




| Law | Mean slide | SD slide | Mean | SD | Mean volatility | No slide | Exit L | Exit R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5) Stochastic bandwagon (mult. noise) | 0.948 | 0.044 | 0.255 | 0.084 | 0.119 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| A6) Noisy linear (additive) | 0.978 | 0.013 | 0.426 | 0.042 | 0.039 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |


| vs. | vs. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law | Pearson | Spearman | Pearson | Spearman |
| A5) Stochastic bandwagon (mult. noise) | ||||
| A6) Noisy linear (additive) | ||||




| Adoption rule | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5) Stochastic bandwagon (mult. noise) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.202 | 1.241 | 3.014 |
| A6) Noisy linear (additive) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.725 | 0.734 | 1.148 |
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| 1 | The assumption ensures regime-wise uniqueness of (14). Allowing locally would capture momentum or trend-following demand, potentially generating self-reinforcing price dynamics within regimes. We maintain monotonicity to isolate threshold-driven coordination effects induced by governance and supply design. |


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