Submitted:
10 March 2026
Posted:
11 March 2026
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Abstract
Nova Scotia, a province on Canada’s Atlantic coast, has proposed Wind West, a plan to initiate the province’s offshore wind industry. A regional offshore wind report identified eight potential development areas (PDAs), of which four were chosen. The areas were selected to avoid ecologically significant and conflict-of-use areas; however, no consideration was given to tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes (intense tropical cyclones). This paper evaluates the effects of climate change and TCs on offshore wind turbines sighted on Nova Scotia’s continental shelf by analysing historical TC track data to assess the intensity and frequency of extreme wind and wave events on the continental shelf. Correlations between SSTs and extreme weather events were also examined. The findings show no clear long-term trends in TC intensity or frequency in the selected areas, although there is a clear upward trend in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) since 1950. No strong correlation between rising SSTs and increased storm intensity or frequency within the available datasets were found, though similar studies suggest that these variables have some correlation on aggregate. While climate change is causing conditions for hurricanes to become favorable along the Scotian Shelf, current TC data shows no clear correlation with increasing intensity and frequency over time. The results are affected by the quality of the data. High uncertainty, spatial resolution, and temporal resolution leave large portions of TC tracks unmeasured. Uncertainty associated with pre- and post-1950 data makes conclusions from the results difficult. We propose a measuring buoy in each of the four selected potential development areas cost C$200,000 to develop and C$35,000 to maintain. Each buoy would have a representative radius of 50km, slightly larger than that of each of the four wind energy zones. The additional data collected would allow developers to pick appropriate design standards based on available environmental data and could additionally be used for climate change research. Currently, Nova Scotia faces many limitations developing its offshore; supplying accurate data to assess the risk from extreme weather events to offshore wind turbines is one of the first steps to ensuring success.
