4. Discussion and Conclusion
The results of this study show that cruise tourists in Zadar showed a significant willingness to pay for an electric tram that would connect the port of Gaženica with the historic city center. The mean willingness to pay estimate of €11.88 per passenger (95% CI: €7.69–€16.07) represents a valid monetary signal for investments in sustainable urban mobility in the context of port tourism. This estimate is consistent with previous research in Croatia that has shown that visitors and residents are willing to pay for improvements in environmental quality and living standards, as shown by Opačak and Wang in their studies of the value of urban improvements. The negative and statistically significant coefficient of the BID variable (β = -0.228, p < 0.001) confirms the fundamental economic principle of the law of demand and validates the design of the contingent valuation method. This result shows that each additional euro of supply is associated with a decrease in the log-odds of willingness to pay by 0.228 units, which is in line with theoretical expectations and previous empirical findings in CVM studies. The positive and statistically significant effect of transport costs at the last stop (β = 0.035, p = 0.008) suggests that passengers who have already experienced higher transport costs show a higher willingness to pay for the tram. This finding is theoretically logical because passengers who have paid more for transport at previous stops have a better sense of the value of transport services and are more willing to pay for a better-quality alternative. This variable acts as a proxy for the “transport sensitivity” of passengers and shows that the experience with transport costs is a key factor in the formation of preferences.
The perception of the experience with the electric tram infrastructure (β = 0.517, p = 0.045) turned out to be a statistically significant predictor of willingness to pay. Passengers who had more positive attitudes towards the tram were more willing to pay for this service. This result is in line with the theory of planned behavior, which suggests that attitudes and perceptions are key factors in shaping behavioral intentions. In the context of sustainable urban mobility, this finding has important implications: educating passengers about the benefits of electric trams (lower emissions, shorter travel times, less congestion) can significantly increase their willingness to pay. Control variables such as number of family members (β = 0.138, p = 0.275), cruise experience (β = 0.319, p = 0.390) and gender (β = 0.264, p = 0.444) did not show statistical significance. This result suggests that sociodemographic characteristics are not the primary factors determining willingness to pay for trams. Instead, economic factors (transport costs) and environmental attitudes (perception of trams) are more crucial factors. This is important because it shows that willingness to pay for sustainable mobility is relatively universal across different demographic groups of passengers.
Three complementary robustness checks conducted in this study further confirm the validity of the parameter estimates and show that the results are stable regardless of model specification. The application of the Turnbull nonparametric method, which does not assume a specific shape of the distribution of willingness to pay, showed that the parameter estimate falls exactly between the two Turnbull estimates, suggesting that it is a reasonable and robust estimate. The difference between the Turnbull versions illustrates the importance of using all available information from the double-bounded design. The version with BID1 can only be biased because it ignores information from follow-up responses, while the version with BID1 and BID2 intervals uses all available information. Parametric estimation, which includes control variables, provides an estimate that balances between conservative and liberal approaches.
Potential starting-point bias, where the initial offer could influence the respondent’s decision, was tested by including dummy variables for BID sets €2, €5, €7 and €10 (with BID set €1 as the reference category). The Wald test showed no evidence for starting-point bias in this analysis - no BID set had a statistically significant coefficient (all p-values around 1.000). This positive result suggests that the respondents made their decisions on the basis of real willingness to pay, and not based on anchoring to the initial offer. This is important because it validates the integrity of the data and shows that the study design was effective in avoiding this common source of bias. To test the robustness of the parameter estimates, a bivariate logit model was applied using Generalized Estimators of Equations (GEE) with variable correlation structure. The analysis was performed in the R Studio programming environment using the geepack package. This approach enables the modeling of intra-respondent correlation between the first and second answers, which is especially important in a double-bounded dichotomous choice design where the same respondent gives two answers.
The results of the bivariate GEE model show that the BID coefficient is β = -0.2889 (p < 0.001), which confirms the law of demand and is consistent with the parametric model. The estimated correlation parameter (α = 0.0571) indicates a very weak positive correlation between the first and second answers, which suggests that the respondents were relatively consistent in their decisions. The mean willingness to pay calculated from the bivariate model is €11.70, which is almost identical to the parametric estimate of €11.88 (a difference of only €0.21 or 1.8%). This result confirms the robustness of the parametric model and shows that the conclusions on willingness to pay are stable regardless of model specification. The fact that the bivariate model, which explicitly models the correlation between responses, gives an almost identical estimate as the parametric model, suggests that the parametric approach was appropriate and that the control variables properly captured the heterogeneity in respondent preferences. A spike at zero WTP of 2.69% (NO-NO answers) indicates a minimal number of protest votes. This suggests that the respondents were serious in their answers and that there is not a significant number of respondents who rejected the offer for reasons of principle rather than a real unwillingness to pay. This finding is positive because it shows that the data is of good quality and that there are no major problems with protest votes that could distort the results.
The results of this study have important implications for the policy of sustainable urban mobility in Zadar and other Mediterranean ports. First, the monetary estimate of €11.88 per passenger represents a concrete basis for the financial analysis of the electric tram project. If applied to an effective annual population of 168,491 passengers, the annual aggregate willingness to pay is €2,002,122 (95% CI: €1,296,362–€2,707,883). This value can be used as a basis for evaluating the costs and benefits of the project and for determining the optimal level of fees that should be charged to passengers. The positive impact of the perception of the experience with the tram infrastructure suggests that education and communication with passengers is key to increasing acceptance and willingness to pay. Port authorities and city governments should invest in information campaigns that highlight the advantages of electric trams - lower emissions, faster travel, less congestion. This study shows that passengers who have a better sense of the advantages of the tram are more willing to pay for the service.
The finding that transport costs at upstream stations positively affects willingness to pay suggests that a coordinated approach to transport policy is needed in Mediterranean ports. Passengers who have paid more at upstream stations may be demotivated if they must pay extra in Zadar. It is therefore important for port authorities to consider strategies to make the tram affordable and attractive, perhaps through subsidies or cruise packages. This study shows that Zadar is an ideal location for a pilot project of an electric tram. Circular passengers showed a significant willingness to pay, suggesting that the project could be financially viable. Zadar, as noted by Jurčević et al., is an example of a port that strategically relocated its terminal to Gaženica, which created a new logistical challenge. An electric tram could be a solution that simultaneously reduces emissions and improves mobility.
Zadar differs from other key Croatian ports such as Dubrovnik and Split. While Dubrovnik faces extreme pedestrian congestion within its historic walls, and Split has a port in the very heart of the city, Zadar strategically relocated its passenger terminal to Gaženica. This decision reduced the direct pressure of ships on the historic peninsula but created a new logistical challenge: the need for efficient, sustainable and environmentally friendly passenger transport on the 3.5 km route between the terminal and the city center. This specific situation makes Zadar a “living laboratory” for investigating how specific logistics infrastructure affects the perception of the value of sustainable mobility. The results of this study can be applied to other Mediterranean ports facing similar challenges. Studies on the logistics of Croatian ports, such as those by Jurčević et al., show that such a dislocation requires advanced urban mobility solutions to avoid creating new “bottlenecks” in urban transport.
Although this study provides important insights into the willingness to pay of commuters for an electric tram, there are several limitations that should be considered when interpreting the results. First, the study was based on a hypothetical scenario. Respondents were asked to imagine a situation in which they would have to pay for a tram that did not exist. Although the CVM method is standard for evaluating public goods that are not market-valued, there is a possibility that passengers’ actual decisions would differ from their hypothetical responses. This difference between hypothetical and actual behavior is known as “hypothetical bias” and can lead to overestimation of willingness to pay. Second, the study was conducted in only two locations (the port and the city center) and in only two seasons (summer 2023 and summer 2024). These limitations may affect the representativeness of the sample. Commuters arriving in the summer may have different characteristics than those arriving in other seasons. Additionally, passengers interviewed at the port may be different from those interviewed in the city center.
Third, the study only included cruise tourists, not residents or other types of tourists. Local residents may have different preferences and willingness to pay than cruise passengers. This perspective should be included in future research to gain a more comprehensive view of public support for the tram. Fourth, the study did not consider the possibility that passengers might use alternative modes of transport (bus, taxi, walking, cycling). The actual demand for the tram may be lower than the estimated willingness to pay if low-cost alternatives are available. Fifth, the study used a relatively small sample of 223 respondents (after data cleaning). While this is satisfactory for CVM studies, a larger sample could provide more precise estimates. This study opens several important directions for future research in the field of sustainable urban mobility and port tourism. A longitudinal study should be conducted to track actual use of the tram after it is built. This study could test the hypothesis of “hypothetical bias” and show how much actual behavior differs from hypothetical responses. In addition, a longitudinal study could show how preferences change over time and how the tram experience affects passenger satisfaction. The study should be extended to include residents and other types of tourists (other than commuters). This perspective could show whether there is a consensus among different user groups on the value of the tram, or whether different groups have different preferences. An analysis of alternative scenarios should be carried out that would include different prices, frequencies and tram features. This analysis could show how passengers are sensitive to different aspects of the service and which combination of features would be optimal. A study should be carried out to analyse the impact of the tram on air quality, noise and congestion in the city. This study could show the real external benefits of the project and be used to assess the overall value of the investment. A comparative study between different Mediterranean ports should be carried out to understand how preferences for sustainable mobility differ between different cities and regions. This study could provide insights that would be applicable to a wider geographical area. A study should be conducted that would analyze the impact of different communication strategies on the perception and willingness to pay for the tram. This study could show how education and information campaigns can be used to increase public support for sustainable transport projects.
This study shows that cruise passengers in Zadar showed a significant and robust willingness to pay for an electric tram connecting the port of Gaženica with the historic city center. The mean estimate of €11.88 per passenger, confirmed through three complementary robustness checks (Turnbull nonparametric method, starting-point bias test, and bivariate logit model), represents a valid monetary signal for investments in sustainable urban mobility in the context of port tourism. The results show that economic factors (transport costs) and environmental attitudes (perception of the tram) are more crucial factors than sociodemographic characteristics in shaping willingness to pay. This study also shows that Zadar is an ideal location for a pilot electric tram project, given the significant willingness to pay and the specific logistical situation where the terminal was relocated to Gaženica. The implications of this study extend beyond Zadar. In the context of the broader discourse on sustainable tourism development, this study shows that it is possible to quantify the monetary support of passengers for low-emission urban mobility. This value can be used as a basis for financial analysis of the project and for determining the optimal level of compensation. In addition, the study shows that education and communication with passengers are key to increasing acceptance and willingness to pay for sustainable transport solutions. We conclude that an electric tram between Gaženica and Poluotok is not only technically feasible, but also a financially viable option that is supported by a significant willingness to pay from cruise passengers. The implementation of this project could be an example of how port authorities and city governments can use economic values to shape sustainable urban mobility policies. In the context of climate change and increasing pressures on urban centers, this study shows that passengers are willing to pay for solutions that reduce emissions and improve the quality of life in cities.
Acknowledgments
The author acknowledges the assistance of her graduate level students, generations 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 in data collection. During the preparation of this manuscript, the author used AI-assisted tools for the purposes of grammar check and text translations. The author has reviewed and edited the output and takes full responsibility for the content of this publication.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.