Institutions as Drivers of Vulnerability: Yield Imperatives, Seed Governance, and the Erosion of Agrobiodiversity Under Climatic Stress in Ethiopia

While climate change creates the overarching biophysical stress on Ethiopian agriculture, institutional and governance structures primarily mediate agrobiodiversity outcomes, often trading evolutionary resilience for short-term productivity. This review synthesizes cross-sectoral evidence from Ethiopia’s major highland and rangeland systems to demonstrate that climate change acts as a systemic stress test, exposing latent vulnerabilities in agricultural policy, seed regulation, and land tenure systems. The widespread loss of agrobiodiversity, documented by genetic erosion rates ranging from 56% in barley to over 65% in teff and wheat, including total displacement in certain districts, is largely driven by a structural conflict between productivity imperatives and ecological stewardship. Our synthesis reveals that policy silos, top-down extension models, and regulatory biases toward genetic uniformity collectively erode the functional heterogeneity required for climate adaptation. This institutional failure necessitates a governance-centered framework that formalizes pluralistic seed systems and empowers decentralized farmer innovation. Realigning governance incentives to treat agrobiodiversity as a strategic national asset is essential for securing Ethiopia’s genetic capital against accelerating climatic stress.