Use of Artificial Intelligence for Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in the Minas Gerais State, Brazil

Seasonal precipitation forecasting remains challenging in regions with complex topography and high climatic variability, such as the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. This study evaluates the performance of an Artificial Intelligence (AI)–based ensemble approach for seasonal precipitation prediction during 2024 and compares its results with those obtained from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP-CFSv2), a model from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The AI model was trained using high-resolution precipitation data from the MERGE-CPTEC dataset and applied to generate seasonal forecasts. Model performance was assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Relative Error (RE). Observed seasonal precipitation anomalies for 2024 were also examined to contextualize forecast skill under different climatic conditions. The results show that the AI-based forecasts consistently outperform the NCEP-CFSv2 from NMME across all seasons, exhibiting lower error metrics and improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns. The highest forecast skill was observed during winter (JJA), when atmospheric conditions are more stable and precipitation variability is low. During the wet seasons (DJF and SON), despite increased convective activity and spatial heterogeneity, the AI model maintained greater spatial coherence and closer agreement with observations than the dynamical forecasts. Overall, the findings demonstrate that AI-based approaches represent a promising and computationally efficient complementary tool for regional-scale seasonal precipitation forecasting, particularly in climatically heterogeneous regions.