Submitted:
06 January 2026
Posted:
09 January 2026
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Abstract
The networked nature of interbank connections creates vulnerability to systemic risk, which arises from inter-dependencies caused by common asset holdings when faced with exogenous negative shocks. This paper employs Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) to reconstruct the network system of asset-holding correlations from the balance sheets of Chinese commercial banks from 2016 to 2022. The reconstructed network is designed to accurately mimic the topology of the real banking system. Subsequently, a novel framework for measuring aggregate network vulnerability is applied. This framework incorporates factors such as bank size, initial shocks, connectedness, leverage, and asset fire sales to identify financial contagion effects. The findings indicate that the reconstructed network system exhibits a good fit to real-world data in both its linkage structure and weight distribution. Furthermore, the cumulative aggregate vulnerability of the network increases non-linearly with the magnitude of the initial shock and the discount level of asset fire sales. The indirect vulnerability for individual banks, resulting from risk contagion triggered by deleveraging and fire sales, is substantially higher than the direct losses from initial shocks. The risk contribution to systemic vulnerability is concentrated in large state-owned banks and national joint-stock commercial banks. In contrast, the institutions most affected by risk shocks are predominantly small and medium-sized rural and urban commercial banks.
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Network reconstruction
2.2. Network reconstruction
3. Data and Network
3.1. Data and network index
3.2. Data and network index
3.2.1. Topology structure
3.2.2. Topology analysis
- Degree distribution and Strength distribution
- 2.
- Network density, clustering coefficient, and degree correlation
- 3.
- Betweenness centrality, Closeness centrality, and Eigenvector centrality
- 4.
- Asset concentration
3.2.3. Similarity measurement
4. Simulation Study
4.1. Measuring network aggregate vulnerability
4.2. Contribution from each bank to network vulnerability
4.3. Network topology structure on network vulnerability
4.4. Impact of risk contagion on individual banks
5. Conclusions
Data Availability Statement
Appendix A
Appendix A.1
| Bank Abbreviation | Bank Name | Category |
|---|---|---|
| ICBC | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| CCB | China Construction Bank | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| ABC | Agricultural Bank of China | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| BOC | Bank of China | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| PSBC | Postal Savings Bank of China | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| BCM | Bank of Communications | State-Owned Large Commercial Bank |
| CMB | China Merchants Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| SPDB | Shanghai Pudong Development Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CIB | China's Industrial Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CCIB | China CITIC Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CMBC | China Minsheng Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CEB | China Everbright Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| PAB | Ping An Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| HXB | Huaxia Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CGB | China Guangfa Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CZB | China Zheshang Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| CBHB | China Bohai Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| EGB | Evergrowing Bank | National Joint-Stock Commercial Bank |
| BOB | Bank of Beijing | City Commercial Bank |
| SHB | Bank of Shanghai | City Commercial Bank |
| JSB | Bank of Jiangsu | City Commercial Bank |
| NBCB | Bank of Ningbo | City Commercial Bank |
| NJB | Bank of Nanjing | City Commercial Bank |
| SJB | Shengjing Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| HZCB | Bank of Hangzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| HSB | Huishang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| XIB | Xiamen International Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| TCCB | Tianjin City Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| JZB | Bank of Jinzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| HRB | Harbin Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| ZYB | Bank of Zhongyuan | City Commercial Bank |
| BSB | Baoshang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| BCS | Bank of Changsha | City Commercial Bank |
| BCD | Bank of Chengdu | City Commercial Bank |
| GCB | Bank of Guangzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| GYB | Bank of Guiyang | City Commercial Bank |
| BCQ | Bank of Chongqing | City Commercial Bank |
| JXCB | Bank of Jiangxi | City Commercial Bank |
| ZZB | Bank of Zhengzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| QDB | Bank of Qingdao | City Commercial Bank |
| HKB | Bank of Hankou | City Commercial Bank |
| JLB | Bank of Jilin | City Commercial Bank |
| DLB | Bank of Dalian | City Commercial Bank |
| DGB | Bank of Dongguan | City Commercial Bank |
| HXBC | Huarong Xiangjiang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| BHB | Bank of Hebei | City Commercial Bank |
| SZB | Bank of Suzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| GLB | Bank of Guilin | City Commercial Bank |
| LZB | Bank of Lanzhou | City Commercial Bank |
| GSB | Gansu Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| LJB | Longjiang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| QLB | Qilu Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| GZB | Guizhou Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| JJB | Jiujiang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| KLB | Kunlun Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| GHB | Guangdong Huaxing Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CAB | Chang’an Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| FDB | Fudian Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| XAB | Xi’an Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| HBC | Hubei Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| HNB | Hunan Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| BGB | Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| WZB | Wenzhou Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| XMB | Xiamen Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| LYB | Luoyang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CZCB | Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CQTGB | Chongqing Three Gorges Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CRB | China Resources Bank of Zhuhai | City Commercial Bank |
| LFB | Langfang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| STB | Sichuan Tianfu Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| WHCCB | Weihai City Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| JINB | Jinshang Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| GZB | Ganzhou Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| RZB | Rizhao Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| FHB | Fujian Haixia Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CSRCB | Changshu Rural Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| TZB | Taizhou Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| BOTS | Bank of Tangshan | City Commercial Bank |
| BYK | Yingkou Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| UCCB | Urumqi City Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| ZJTCB | Zhejiang Tailong Commercial Bank | City Commercial Bank |
| CQRCB | Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| SRCB | Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| BRCB | Beijing Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| GRCB | Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| DRCB | Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| CDRCB | Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| JNRCB | Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| QNCB | Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| SDRCB | Shunde Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| QRCB | Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| TRCB | Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| WHRCB | Wuhan Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| URCB | United Rural Cooperative Bank Of Hangzhou | Rural Commercial Bank |
| NRCB | Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| XSRCB | Xiaoshan Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
| ZJRCB | Zijin Rural Commercial Bank | Rural Commercial Bank |
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| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Number of Banks | 81 | 83 | 76 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 71 |
| Category of Asset | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| Indicator | Symbol | Description | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Density | D | Number of indirect links as a ratio of the total number of edges (excluding self-loops) | [0,1] |
| Degree | k | Sum of the actual number of edges | [0,∞] |
| Strength | s | Sum of the edge weights between nodes in the network | [0,∞] |
| Degree Distribution | P(k) | Probability distribution of node degree | [0,1] |
| Strength Distribution | P(s) | Probability distribution of node weight | [0,1] |
| Clustering Coefficient | C | The degree to which nodes in a graph tend to cluster together, which is defined as the number of closed triplets (any three nodes with links between all three) over the total number of triplets (including triplets with one link missing) in indirect network | [0,1] |
| Degree Correlation | r | Connectivity tendency between nodes with different eigenvalue | [[-1,1] |
| Betweenness Centrality | B | Extent to which a node lies on the shortest paths between pairs of other nodes in a network, to measure nodes’ importance | [0,1] |
| Herfindahl-Hirschman Index | HHI | Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of both banks and assets is defined as the sum of the squared allocation. | [0,1] |
| Year | Size | k | D | C | r | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autual Network | 2016 | 81×47 | 2850 | 22.27 | 35.19 | 60.64 | 0.75 | 0.73 | -0.70 |
| 2017 | 83×47 | 2923 | 22.48 | 35.22 | 62.19 | 0.75 | 0.73 | -0.71 | |
| 2018 | 76×47 | 2642 | 21.48 | 34.76 | 56.21 | 0.74 | 0.71 | -0.66 | |
| 2019 | 77×47 | 2593 | 20.91 | 33.68 | 55.17 | 0.72 | 0.71 | -0.63 | |
| 2020 | 73×47 | 2466 | 20.55 | 33.78 | 52.47 | 0.72 | 0.72 | -0.61 | |
| 2021 | 66×47 | 2164 | 19.15 | 32.79 | 46.04 | 0.70 | 0.71 | -0.63 | |
| 2022 | 71×47 | 2373 | 20.11 | 33.42 | 50.49 | 0.71 | 0.73 | -0.67 | |
| Reconstruted Network | 2016 | 81×47 | 2904 | 22.69 | 35.85 | 61.79 | 0.76 | 0.75 | -0.72 |
| 2017 | 83×47 | 2990 | 23.00 | 36.02 | 63.62 | 0.77 | 0.75 | -0.74 | |
| 2018 | 76×47 | 2710 | 22.03 | 35.66 | 57.66 | 0.76 | 0.75 | -0.70 | |
| 2019 | 77×47 | 2665 | 21.49 | 34.61 | 56.70 | 0.74 | 0.72 | -0.69 | |
| 2020 | 73×47 | 2545 | 21.21 | 34.86 | 54.15 | 0.74 | 0.73 | -0.66 | |
| 2021 | 66×47 | 2224 | 19.68 | 33.70 | 47.32 | 0.72 | 0.73 | -0.68 | |
| 2022 | 71×47 | 2426 | 20.56 | 34.17 | 51.62 | 0.73 | 0.75 | -0.72 |
| Category | Metric | Description | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Link-based | Jaccard score | Inverse of the number of links belonging to the original and reconstructed networks divided by the number of links that belong to at least one network | [0,1] |
| Exposure-based | Cosine measure | Cosine of the angle between the original and reconstructed networks | [0,1] |
| Year | Jaccard score | Cosine measure |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| 2017 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| 2018 | 0.69 | 0.95 |
| 2019 | 0.65 | 0.96 |
| 2020 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| 2021 | 0.72 | 0.96 |
| 2022 | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Year | Bank | Bank | Year | Bank | Bank | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | ABC | 6759.25 | PSBC | 106722.6 | 2022 | PSBC | 1536.424 | WHRCB | 32305.64 |
| PSBC | 4992.9 | DRCB | 65951.36 | ABC | 1457.434 | PSBC | 29333.99 | ||
| ICBC | 4253.748 | GRCB | 63469.6 | ICBC | 1330.509 | SDRCB | 28132.12 | ||
| CCB | 3986.976 | ABC | 60310.09 | BOC | 1185.45 | SRCB | 21789.19 | ||
| BOC | 3876.179 | NRCB | 48963.01 | CCB | 1000.414 | ZJTCB | 21695.56 | ||
| CMB | 1003.02 | CQRC | 47742.72 | CMB | 285.396 | CDRCB | 21173.36 | ||
| BCM | 979.4315 | SDRCB | 47726.79 | BCM | 264.6488 | NRCB | 18770.98 | ||
| CMBC | 617.5012 | BHB | 47678.8 | CMBC | 144.7064 | CSRCB | 17858.08 | ||
| CCIB | 456.0433 | FDB | 46448.13 | CCIB | 120.0027 | BRCB | 16145.62 | ||
| SPDB | 450.7068 | DGB | 46423.7 | SPDB | 117.7803 | FDB | 14782.59 |
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