Submitted:
03 December 2025
Posted:
22 December 2025
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Abstract
Accurately distinguishing true hardware failures from false alarms is a critical requirement in large-scale optical networks, where unnecessary Return Material Authorizations (RMAs) result in significant operational and financial overhead. This paper presents a novel AI-driven predictive framework that integrates multi-domain telemetry fusion, Transformer-based temporal modeling, and a domain-aware hybrid ensemble to deliver carrier-grade hardware failure detection in optical embedded systems. Unlike prior works that rely on single-sensor or threshold-based diagnostics, the proposed approach jointly analyzes optical power fluctuations, laser bias-current drift, TEC thermal instability, voltage dynamics, and DSP-layer soft metrics, enabling the model to capture degradation signatures that emerge only through cross-sensor interactions. A customized ensemble combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-LSTM, and TimeSeriesBERT is introduced to fuse complementary pattern-recognition capabilities--including long-term drift modeling, high-frequency anomaly detection, and global multi-sensor attention--resulting in superior robustness and generalization. Evaluation of real-time telemetry from optical devices demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed system, achieving high accuracy with a high F1-score and significantly reducing unnecessary RMAs. These results highlight the novelty and practical value of the presented framework, establishing it as the first comprehensive AI solution tailored for reliable hardware-failure prediction in optical embedded systems.
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- Failure signatures are multi-domain, simultaneously affecting optical, thermal, electrical, and DSP layers;
- Telemetry signals exhibit multi-scale temporal behavior, where hardware aging may occur over days while transient anomalies occur within milliseconds;
- Long-range dependencies and cross-sensor correlations cannot be effectively captured by conventional recurrent architectures; and
- True failure events are rare, making learning difficult without a robust modeling architecture and augmentation strategy.
2. Related Work
3. Proposed Methodology
3.1. Understanding Confusion Matrix
- High precision = fewer false alarms
- High recall = fewer missed failures
- Strong recall (0.84): The model catches most real hardware failures.
- Moderate precision (0.74): Some false alarms still occur, but are manageable.
- High TN count: The model is very good at recognizing healthy systems.
- Low FN is critical: Missing hardware failures lead to outages; here it’s controlled (8 cases only).
3.2. System Architecture
- Data Acquisition: Multi-sensor telemetry streams from transceivers, DSPs, and optical amplifiers (1 Hz sampling).
- Preprocessing: Normalization, noise filtering (Butterworth low-pass), and missing data interpolation.
- Model Training: Deep learning architectures (LSTM, CNN-LSTM, TimeSeriesBERT) trained to classify fault patterns.
- Ensemble Decision (Majority Voting): Combines predictions across models for robust fault confirmation.
3.3. Algorithmic Methodology
3.3.0.1. Algorithm Proposed AI-Driven Hardware Failure Prediction Framework
- Multi-domain telemetry stream S = optical power, bias current, TEC temperature, voltage, DSP metrics
- Sampling frequency = 1 Hz
- Labeled classes: Normal, False Alarm, True Failure
- Predicted class for each telemetry window
- Read raw telemetry packets from optical devices.
- Align timestamps across all sensors (optical, electrical, thermal, DSP).
- Remove corrupted or missing samples using interpolation or forward-fill.
- Normalize each sensor channel using min-max or z-score scaling.
- Slice the time-series into overlapping windows of length T.
-
Apply augmentation:
- Slight amplitude jittering
- Drift scaling
- Time warping
- Window slicing
- Construct multi-sensor feature vectors for each window:
- Feed into a stacked LSTM
- Capture long-term drift and slow degradation.
- Output probability for each class.
- Apply 1D convolutions to extract local spike/edge features.
- Feed convolved features into an LSTM for temporal learning.
- Output probability for each class
- Convert input window into positional embeddings.
- Apply multi-head self-attention to learn cross-sensor relationships and long-range dependencies.
- Output probability for each class
-
Aggregate , , using:
- Sensor-domain weighting
- Cross-model consistency checking
- Threshold-based stability filters
- Compute final ensemble score .
- Assign predicted label as:
- Compare predicted labels against ground truth.
- Compute accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and confusion matrix.
- Validate reproducibility under fixed seeds and stable splits.
3.4. Dataset Description
-
Optical Layer Telemetry
- Transmit optical power
- Receive optical power
- Optical modulation stability indicators
These signals reflect issues such as connector contamination, fiber loss variations, or laser degradation. -
Electrical and Bias-Circuit Telemetry
- Laser bias current
- Photodiode bias levels
- Voltage and current fluctuations
These parameters track semiconductor aging, threshold shifts, and bias-loop instabilities. -
Thermal/Environmental Telemetry
- TEC (Thermoelectric Cooler) temperature
- Heat-sink temperature
- Ambient module temperature
These features indicate thermal runaway, cooling element wear-out, and environmental stress. -
DSP (Digital Signal Processing) Soft Metrics
- EVM (Error Vector Magnitude)
- Pre-FEC BER
- Q-margin
These indicators capture impairments not directly visible at the hardware layer, including nonlinear distortions and transient performance drops. -
Control and Management Telemetry
- Internal status flags
- Microcontroller voltage health
- Error counters and alarm states
- 0: Normal Operation
- 1: True Hardware Failure (confirmed physical issue)
- 2: False Alarm / Environmental
3.5. Dataset and reproduciblity
3.6. Model Training
- LSTM: Captures temporal dependencies in optical signal patterns.
- CNN-LSTM: Extracts local temporal features and trends in temperature/power fluctuations.
- TimeSeriesBERT: Adapts transformer attention to long-range dependencies and cross-sensor correlation.
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Overall Performance
- +1.8% over LSTM,
- +1.0% over CNN-LSTM,
- +0.3% over TimeSeriesBERT.
4.2. Confusion Matrix Analysis
4.3. Comparative Insights
4.3.0.2. LSTM Strengths & Weaknesses
4.3.0.3. CNN-LSTM Strengths & Weaknesses
4.3.0.4. TimeSeriesBERT Strengths & Weaknesses
- multi-head attention across sensor domains
- long-range dependency modeling
- robustness to missing timestamps
4.3.0.5. Why the Ensemble is Superior
4.4. Reduction of False RMAs
- ~21% reduction in unnecessary RMAs compared to threshold-based alarms
- ~13% reduction compared to traditional ML classification
- ~7% reduction compared to the best individual deep-learning model
4.5. Robustness to Missing and Noisy Telemetry
- 5%, 10%, and 15% artificially dropped samples
- 3% sensor noise (Gaussian)
- Timestamp jitter of 2-3 seconds
4.6. Ablation Study
- All three models contribute meaningful complementary signals
- Domain-aware weighting improves decision reliability
- Ensemble design is justified and not redundant
4.7. Industrial Relevance and Real-World Impact
- Lower maintenance overhead
- Higher network reliability
- Reduced unnecessary escalations
- Improved hardware lifecycle management
4.8. Summary of Findings
- State-of-the-art prediction accuracy
- High robustness to noisy and incomplete telemetry
- Superior failure discrimination compared to all baseline models
- Significant reduction of unnecessary RMAs (~21%)
- Improved operational reliability in optical networks
5. Conclusions
6. Future Scope
Short Biography of Authors
Conflicts of Interest
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| Aspect | Classical Majority Voting / Bagging / Boosting / Stacking | Proposed Domain-Aware Hybrid Ensemble (LSTM + CNN-LSTM + TimeSeriesBERT) |
|---|---|---|
| Design Purpose | Generic performance improvement across unrelated ML tasks | Specifically designed for optical hardware telemetry and cross-sensor failure patterns |
| Input Data Characteristics | Assumes homogeneous or feature-aligned datasets | Handles multi-domain signals: optical power, bias current, TEC, voltage, DSP metrics |
| Temporal Modeling Ability | Weak or absent (not time-series-aware) | Explicitly models short-, medium-, and long-term degradation via hybrid temporal models |
| Cross-Sensor Correlation Learning | Not supported; treats features uniformly | TimeSeriesBERT captures global dependencies across optical-thermal-electrical-DSP layers |
| Model Diversity | Random trees, simple learners, or independent classifiers | Deep temporal models with complementary specialization (drift, spikes, global context) |
| Decision Fusion Mechanism | Uniform voting or static weights | Context-aware fusion with sensor-domain weighting and anomaly-consistency checks |
| Handling Hardware Aging & Drift | Cannot detect slow nonlinear drift | LSTM + TimeSeriesBERT detect aging signatures & multi-day drift anomalies |
| Handling High-Frequency Spikes | Poor, especially with bagging/boosting | CNN-LSTM captures fast transients in optical power & electrical noise |
| Robustness to Missing/Noisy Telemetry | Degrades heavily; no attention mechanism | Attention-based TimeSeriesBERT is robust to missing timestamps & noisy fields |
| Interpretability for Engineers | Low; ensemble decisions difficult to justify | Attention maps + cross-sensor reasoning provide explainable failure attribution |
| Suitability for Optical Networks (IoT/Telecom Hardware) | Low-Moderate (not domain aware) | High - first ensemble designed specifically for optical embedded systems |
| Typical Use Cases | Generic classification, tabular ML | Predictive maintenance, telecom hardware reliability, true failure detection |
| Performance in This Work | Not applicable (classical ensembles tested poorly) | 97.3% accuracy, 97.0% F1-score, 21% false-RMA reduction |
| F1-score | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 1.0 | Perfect precision and recall |
| 0.7–0.9 | Strong model |
| 0.5–0.7 | Moderate performance |
| Weak model | |
| 0 | No correct positive predictions |
| Parameter | Description | Units | Sampling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rx/Tx Optical Power | Received & transmitted power levels | dBm | 1 Hz |
| Bias Current | Laser bias or modulator drive current | mA | 1 Hz |
| TEC Temperature | Thermo-electric cooler sensor | ∘C | 1 Hz |
| DSP EVM | Error vector magnitude | dB | 1 Hz |
| Voltage Drift | Supply rail fluctuation | mV | 1 Hz |
| Parameter | Description | Units | Sampling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rx/Tx Optical Power | Received & transmitted power levels | dBm | 1 Hz |
| Bias Current | Laser bias or modulator drive current | mA | 1 Hz |
| TEC Temperature | Thermo-electric cooler sensor | ∘C | 1 Hz |
| DSP EVM | Error vector magnitude | dB | 1 Hz |
| Voltage Drift | Supply rail fluctuation | mV | 1 Hz |
| Model | Accuracy | Precision | Recall | F1-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTM | 95.8% | 95.4% | 95.1% | 95.2% |
| CNN-LSTM | 96.3% | 96.1% | 95.8% | 96.0% |
| TimeSeriesBERT | 97.1% | 96.9% | 96.5% | 96.7% |
| Our Proposed Model | 97.3% | 97.1% | 96.8% | 97.0% |
| Failure Pattern | Best-Performing Model | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Slow TEC drift, aging | LSTM | Long-term memory |
| Short spikes in optical power | CNN–LSTM | Local CNN feature extraction |
| Multi-domain correlated failure | TimeSeriesBERT | Cross-sensor attention |
| Configuration | F1-Score | Observation |
|---|---|---|
| Only LSTM | 95.2% | Good for slow drift, poor for multi-sensor issues |
| Only CNN–LSTM | 96.0% | Strong for spikes, weak for aging patterns |
| Only TimeSeriesBERT | 96.7% | Best single-model performance |
| Ensemble w/o weighting | 96.6% | Improvement, but not optimal |
| Full ensemble (proposed) | 97.0% | Best overall performance |
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