Explainable Intelligent Audit Risk Assessment with Causal Graph Modeling and Causally Constrained Representation Learning

This study proposes an intelligent audit risk assessment method that integrates causal structure modeling, causal identifiability reasoning, and interpretable representation learning to address the lack of transparency in risk identification, the presence of confounded variable relationships, and the limitations of correlation-based inference in complex audit scenarios. The method first constructs a structured causal graph of the audit workflow to formalize the triggering relationships and interaction paths among audit features, and then applies structural equations and identifiability analysis to reveal latent causal dependencies. Based on this foundation, the model generates interpretable feature embeddings through causally constrained representation learning, allowing inference results to map back to the business semantic space along causal paths and enabling visual analysis of risk formation. To validate the effectiveness of the approach, this study conducts comparison experiments, ablation experiments, and multidimensional sensitivity analyses on a public audit dataset, and evaluates the method across model accuracy, interpretability, noise robustness, distributional shifts, and hyperparameter variations. The experimental results show that the method achieves significant improvements over existing models in accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, while maintaining stable performance under noise interference, class imbalance, learning rate changes, and latent dimension adjustments. The model also produces clear causal chain explanations that help auditors understand risk sources, identify key process components, and trace potential triggering mechanisms through structured reasoning logic. Overall, this study achieves a deep integration of causal inference and intelligent auditing and provides a complete methodological framework and empirical evidence for building transparent, trustworthy, and highly interpretable audit risk assessment systems.