Research on Effectiveness Evaluation Method of Vehicle Speed Prediction in Predictive Energy Management

Speed prediction is fundamental to optimizing energy management strategies. Common evaluation metrics such as RMSE and MAE focus primarily on the numerical deviation between predicted and actual speeds. However, when applied to hybrid vehicle energy management strategy optimization, speed prediction models based on these metrics show a random deviation between energy consumption results and the theoretical optimal, indicating that these metrics are not effective in this application domain. To explore a more effective method for evaluating the practical application of speed prediction curves, this study uses multiple metrics to assess numerous speed prediction curves and analyses the correlation between each metric and the deviation from the optimal energy consumption during energy management strategy optimization. The results show that considering acceleration is more aligned with the needs of energy management strategy optimization than merely evaluating the proximity of speed values. Specifically, the standard deviation of the acceleration time ratio deviation performs better than traditional metrics like RMSE and MAE in distinguishing the effectiveness of speed prediction curves. The smaller the standard deviation of the acceleration time ratio deviation between the predicted and actual speed curves, the closer the energy consumption results of energy management based on the predicted speed curve are to the theoretical optimal.