Submitted:
30 July 2025
Posted:
26 September 2025
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is shaped by moral (what makes a health technology desirable or acceptable, e.g., beneficence, justice), epistemological (how reliable knowledge is obtained and validated, e.g., evidence standards, uncertainty handling), and ontological (what effects and outcomes are considered real and relevant for assessment) commitments. The EU Joint Clinical Assessment (JCA), intended to harmonize relative effectiveness evaluation, embeds these commitments implicitly rather than explicitly, creating transparency and consistency issues. Critical concerns include: rigid reliance on the PICO framework privileging RCTs and quantifiable outcomes, proliferation of PICOs leading to infeasible evidence requirements, inadequate handling of multiplicity and post-hoc analyses, conflation of certainty and uncertainty, and exclusion of qualitative evidence and stakeholder input. Guidance documents, criticized for methodological weaknesses (e.g., outdated tools, poor external validity assessment, nominal p-values acceptance), further undermine epistemic robustness. These structural flaws risk producing assessments that are non-inclusive, reductionist, and epistemologically inconsistent. Future EU HTA frameworks should explicitly align on foundational commitments and integrate stakeholder perspectives to ensure transparency, scientific credibility, and ethical legitimacy.
Keywords:
Introduction
- 1.
- The PICO framework (Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome)
- 2.
- Multiplicity of PICOs and Epistemic Uncertainty
- 3.
- Multiplicity of hypotheses and type I errors
- 4.
- Post-Hoc Analysis and Nominal p-values
- 5.
- Ontic component and judgment-free assessment
- 6.
- Certainty, uncertainty, and epistemological confusion
- 7.
- Exclusionary and authoritative nature of the EU HTA process
- 8.
- Consolidation of assessment
- 9.
- The degree of certainty
- High certainty of relative effectiveness will be exceptional.
- Medium certainty may sometimes be attainable.
- Most PICOs will have a low certainty rating.
- 10.
- Accelerated versus standard procedure
- 11.
- The hierarchy of evidence
- 12.
- Epistemological perspective of guidance documents
- Erroneous definitions of internal and external validity [4,40]
- Oversimplified external validity assessment [4,56].
- Inadequate handling of multiplicity [14,37]
- Acceptance of nominal p-values in post hoc contexts [14,37]
- Poor management of missing data [14,37]
- Minimum Clinically Important Difference (MCID) is not addressed, within the JCA [4] while it should be reported. It may be reasonable to ask HTDs to document MCID for critical endpoints.
- Continued use of the outdated Risk of Bias (RoB) 1 tool rather than the updated RoB 2 [57].
- Excluding Embase (a medical literature database) and conference abstracts from systematic literature reviews (SLRs) [57]
- Requiring a shifted null hypothesis (altering the baseline assumption) in population-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons (PAICs) [38]
- Relying solely on narrative assessments for external validity [40]
- 13.
- The source of HTA epistemological contradictions
- 14.
- The way forward to circumvent epistemological contradictions
- Multiplies PICOs beyond reasonable empirical feasibility,
- Fails to adequately address type I errors due to multiplicity,
- Treats post-hoc analyses as hypothesis-driven evidence,
- Relies on non-enforceable and epistemically weak, imprecise and inconsistent guidance documents,
- Excludes normative, moral, and contextual judgments,
- Operates under a misconceived notion of certainty.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| EAA | European Access Academy |
| EBM | Evidence Based Medicine |
| EU | European Union |
| HAS | French National Health Authority |
| HTA | Health Technology Assessment |
| HTACG | Health Technology Assessment Coordination Group (of the EU) |
| HTD | Health Technology Developer |
| IQWiG | Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen |
| ITC | Indirect Treatment Comparison |
| JCA | Joint Clinical Assessment |
| MCID | Minimum Clinical Important Difference |
| MS | Member States (of the EU) |
| PAIC | Population-Adjusted Indirect Treatment Comparisons |
| PICO | Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome |
| RCT | Randomized Controlled Trial |
| RoB | Risk of Bias |
| SLR | Systematic Literature Review |
References
- Bloemen, B., W. Oortwijn, and G.J. van der Wilt. Understanding the Normativity of Health Technology Assessment: Ontological, Moral, and Epistemological Commitments. Health Care Anal. 2024. [CrossRef]
- Refolo, P., K. Duthie, B. Hofmann, M. Stanak, N. Bertelsen, B. Bloemen, R. Di Bidino, W. Oortwijn, C. Raimondi, D. Sacchini, G.J. van der Wilt, and K. Bond. Ethical challenges for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in the evolving evidence landscape. Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care 2024, 40, e39. [CrossRef]
- van der Wilt, G.J., B. Bloemen, J. Grin, I. Gutierrez-Ibarluzea, L. Sampietro-Colom, P. Refolo, D. Sacchini, B. Hofmann, L. Sandman, and W. Oortwijn. Integrating Empirical Analysis and Normative Inquiry in Health Technology Assessment: The Values in Doing Assessments of Health Technologies Approach. Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care 2022, 38, e52. [CrossRef]
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Guidance on the validity of clinical studies for joint clinical assessments. V1.0. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9f9dbfe4-078b-4959-9a07-df9167258772_en?filename=hta_clinical-studies-validity_guidance_en.pdf (accessed on 30 December 2024).
- Schünemann, H.J., R.A. Mustafa, J. Brozek, K.R. Steingart, M. Leeflang, M.H. Murad, P. Bossuyt, P. Glasziou, R. Jaeschke, and S. Lange. GRADE guidelines: 21 part 1. Study design, risk of bias, and indirectness in rating the certainty across a body of evidence for test accuracy. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 2020, 122, 129-141.
- Hoaglin, D.C., N. Hawkins, J.P. Jansen, D.A. Scott, R. Itzler, J.C. Cappelleri, C. Boersma, D. Thompson, K.M. Larholt, M. Diaz, and A. Barrett. Conducting Indirect-Treatment-Comparison and Network-Meta-Analysis Studies: Report of the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices: Part 2. Value Health 2011, 14, 429-437. [CrossRef]
- Charlton, V., M. DiStefano, P. Mitchell, L. Morrell, L. Rand, G. Badano, R. Baker, M. Calnan, K. Chalkidou, and A. Culyer. We need to talk about values: a proposed framework for the articulation of normative reasoning in health technology assessment. Health Economics, Policy and Law 2024, 19, 153-173.
- European Commission. Regulation (EU) 2021/2282 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 December 2021 on health technology assessment and amending Directive 2011/24/EU. Available online: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32021R2282 (accessed on 18 December 2024).
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Guidance on the scoping process. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/7be11d76-9a78-426c-8e32-79d30a115a64_en?filename=hta_jca_scoping-process_en.pdf (accessed on 2 May 2025).
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Guidance on outcomes for joint clinical assessments. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a70a62c7-325c-401e-ba42-66174b656ab8_en?filename=hta_outcomes_jca_guidance_en.pdf (accessed on 11 July 2025).
- Sieverding, M. and A. Allignol. HTA71 Bridging the Gap: Exploring the PICO Vs Estimand Frameworks in EU Health Technology Assessment (HTA). Value Health 2023, 26, S332. [CrossRef]
- European Medicines Agency (EMA). ICH E9 (R1) addendum on estimands and sensitivity analysis in clinical trials to the guideline on statistical principles for clinical trials. Available online: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/scientific-guideline/ich-e9-r1-addendum-estimands-and-sensitivity-analysis-clinical-trials-guideline-statistical-principles-clinical-trials-step-5_en.pdf (accessed on 7 January 2025).
- The Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Healthcare (IQWiG). 2018: Do the new “estimand” strategies compromise the standards of benefit assessments? Available online: https://www.iqwig.de/en/events/iqwig-in-dialogue/2018-do-the-new-estimand-strategies-compromise-the-standards-of-benefit-assessments.html (accessed on 16 January 2025).
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Guidance on reporting requirements for multiplicity issues and subgroup, sensitivity and post hoc analyses in joint clinical assessments. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/f2f00444-2427-4db9-8370-d984b7148653_en?filename=hta_multiplicity_jca_guidance_en.pdf (accessed on 8 January 2025).
- Świder, A., A.S.S. González, D. Lucion, S. Hall, A. Creasey, J. Wright, C. Steeds, and F. Torelli. HTA291 How Are Patients Involved in Health Technology Assessment? A Comparative Analysis of European Markets for Advanced Therapies and Implications for Joint Clinical Assessment. Value Health 2023, 26, S376.
- European patient organisations. 10 Key Recommendations from Patient Organisations on Joint Clinical Assessments under the EU HTA Regulation. Available online: https://ehc.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/10-Key-Recomendations-from-Patient-Organisations-on-JCAs_-20240610.pdf (accessed on 11 July 2025).
- NICE health technology evaluations: the manual. Last updated: 14 July 2025. Available online: https://www.nice.org.uk/process/pmg36/chapter/the-scope-2 (accessed on 22 September 2025).
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). PICO exercises. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/publications/pico-exercises_en (accessed on 26 February 2025).
- Morant, A.V., V. Jagalski, and H.T. Vestergaard. Characteristics of Single Pivotal Trials Supporting Regulatory Approvals of Novel Non-orphan, Non-oncology Drugs in the European Union and United States from 2012-2016. Clin. Transl. Sci. 2019, 12, 361-370. [CrossRef]
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Methodological Guideline for Quantitative Evidence Synthesis: Direct and Indirect Comparisons. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/4ec8288e-6d15-49c5-a490-d8ad7748578f_en?filename=hta_methodological-guideline_direct-indirect-comparisons_en.pdf (accessed on 8 March 2025).
- Perezgonzalez, J.D. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson or NHST? A tutorial for teaching data testing. Front. Psychol. 2015, 6, 223. [CrossRef]
- Cook, R.J. and V.T. Farewell. Multiplicity considerations in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 1996, 159, 93-110.
- Dmitrienko, A. and R. D'Agostino, Sr. Traditional multiplicity adjustment methods in clinical trials. Stat. Med. 2013, 32, 5172-218.
- Levine, M. and M.H. Ensom. Post hoc power analysis: an idea whose time has passed? Pharmacotherapy: The Journal of Human Pharmacology and Drug Therapy 2001, 21, 405-409. [CrossRef]
- Bays, H.E., Alirocumab, Decreased Mortality, Nominal Significance, P Values, Bayesian Statistics, and the Duplicity of Multiplicity: A Bays-on-Bayes Editorial. 2019, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Hagerstown, MD. p. 113-116.
- Boscardin, C.K., J.L. Sewell, M.G. Tolsgaard, and M.V. Pusic. How to Use and Report on p-values. Perspectives on Medical Education 2024, 13, 250.
- French National Authority for Health (HAS). Doctrine of the Commission de la Transparence (CT). Available online: https://www.has-sante.fr/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-03/doctrine_ct.pdf (accessed on 26 February 2025).
- Craver, C.F. The ontic account of scientific explanation. Explanation in the special sciences: The case of biology and history 2014, 27-52.
- Waters, C.K. Causes that make a difference. The Journal of Philosophy 2007, 104, 551-579.
- Woodward, J. Causation in biology: stability, specificity, and the choice of levels of explanation. Biol. Philos. 2010, 25, 287-318. [CrossRef]
- Weisberg, M. Three kinds of idealization. The journal of Philosophy 2007, 104, 639-659.
- Winsberg, E., Science in the age of computer simulation. 2019: University of Chicago Press.
- Craver, C.F. When mechanistic models explain. Synthese 2006, 153, 355-376.
- Kohár, M. and B. Krickel. Compare and contrast: how to assess the completeness of mechanistic explanation. Neural Mechanisms: New Challenges in the Philosophy of Neuroscience 2021, 395-424.
- Povich, M.A., Model and World: Generalizing the Ontic Conception of Scientific Explanation. 2017: Washington University in St. Louis.
- Matthewson, J. Trade-offs in model-building: A more target-oriented approach. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 2011, 42, 324-333. [CrossRef]
- Toumi, M., B. Fallissard, A. Jouini, P. Auquier, C. Dussart, and L. Boyer. Guidance on Multiplicity Analysis in Single-Trial Assessments: A No-Solution Equation. 2025.
- Aballéa, S., M. Toumi, P. Wojciechowski, E. Clay, B. Falissard, S. Simoens, P. Auquier, S. Capri, J. Ruof, and F.-U. Fricke. Between Rigor and Relevance: Why the EU HTA Guidelines on Indirect Comparisons Miss the Mark. 2025.
- Smela, B., M. Toumi, S. Aballéa, S. Simoens, L. Boyer, B. Falissard, R. Bernardini, S. Capri, and P. Auquier. The EU-Joint Clinical Assessment Guidance Documents Fail to Address the Significance of Systematic Literature Reviews and Deviate from the State of the Art. 2025.
- Toumi, M., B. Falissard, A. Jouini, S. Aballéa, and L. Boyer. Clinical Trial Validity Guidance from the HTACG: Looking for Chicken Teeth. Journal of Market Access & Health Policy 2025, 13, 15.
- The independent Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG). General Methods version 8.0. Available online: https://www.iqwig.de/methoden/allgemeine-methoden_entwurf-fuer-version-8-0.pdf (accessed on 26 February 2025).
- Kaiser, M. Uncertainty and Precaution 1: Certainty and uncertainty in science. Global bioethics 2004, 17, 71-80. [CrossRef]
- Wittgenstein, L., G. Anscombe, and G. Von Wright, On Certainty/Uber Gewissheit. 1986, Harper Collins.
- Bäumel, M. 'On Certainty'and Formal Epistemology. 2015.
- Authority, E.F.S., U. Sahlin, A. Hart, and J. Zilliacus. Degree of certainty in scientific advice: implications for risk management and communication: Event report on a training workshop on uncertainty with risk managers. EFSA Supporting Publications 2022, 19, 7377E.
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Procedural guidance for JCA medicinal products. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/0929cd01-619d-4456-a1c4-d8e33f9e36bf_en?filename=hta_jca_mp_procedural-guidance_en.pdf (accessed on 11 July 2025).
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Practical Guideline for Quantitative Evidence Synthesis: Direct and Indirect Comparisons. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1f6b8a70-5ce0-404e-9066-120dc9a8df75_en?filename=hta_practical-guideline_direct-and-indirect-comparisons_en.pdf (accessed on 8 March 2025).
- Szabo, S.M., N.S. Hawkins, and E. Germeni. The extent and quality of qualitative evidence included in health technology assessments: a review of submissions to NICE and CADTH. Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care 2023, 40, e6. [CrossRef]
- Germeni, E., I. Vallini, M.G. Bianchetti, and P.J. Schulz. Reconstructing normality following the diagnosis of a childhood chronic disease: does "rare" make a difference? Eur. J. Pediatr. 2018, 177, 489-495.
- Cartwright, N. and J. Hardie, Evidence-based policy: A practical guide to doing it better. 2012: Oxford University Press.
- Glasziou, P. and I. Chalmers. Research waste is still a scandal—an essay by Paul Glasziou and Iain Chalmers. BMJ 2018, 363. [CrossRef]
- Desmet, T., M. Brijs, F. Vanderdonck, S. Tops, S. Simoens, and I. Huys. Implementing the EU HTA Regulation: Insights from semi-structured interviews on patient expectations, Belgian and European institutional perspectives, and industry outlooks. Front. Pharmacol. 2024, 15, 1369508.
- Burns, P.B., R.J. Rohrich, and K.C. Chung. The levels of evidence and their role in evidence-based medicine. Plast. Reconstr. Surg. 2011, 128, 305-310.
- European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA). EFPIA response to ‘Guidance on outcomes for joint clinical assessments’. Available online: https://www.efpia.eu/news-events/the-efpia-view/blog-articles/efpia-response-to-guidance-on-outcomes-for-joint-clinical-assessments/ (accessed on 11 June 2025).
- European Access Academy (EAA). Open Letter to DG Santé and the Member State Coordination Group on HTA. Available online: https://irp.cdn-website.com/e52b6f19/files/uploaded/Open_Letter_Methods_EU_HTA.pdf (accessed on 11 June 2025).
- Roe, B.E. and D.R. Just. Internal and external validity in economics research: Tradeoffs between experiments, field experiments, natural experiments, and field data. Am J Agric Econ 2009, 91, 1266-1271.
- The Member State Coordination Group on Health Technology Assessment (HTACG). Guidance on filling in the joint clinical assessment (JCA) dossier template – Medicinal products. Available online: https://health.ec.europa.eu/document/download/3943ae6a-1bca-4afd-b05c-fd9a54a252d7_en?filename=hta_jca_mp_dossier-template_guidance_en.pdf (accessed on 11 June 2025).
- Marsh, K., J.A. van Til, E. Molsen-David, C. Juhnke, N. Hawken, E.M. Oehrlein, Y.C. Choi, A. Duenas, W. Greiner, and K. Haas. Health preference research in Europe: a review of its use in marketing authorization, reimbursement, and pricing decisions—report of the ISPOR stated preference research special interest group. Value Health 2020, 23, 831-841. [CrossRef]
- van der Wilt, G.J. and W. Oortwijn. Health technology assessment: A matter of facts and values. Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care 2022, 38, e53.
- Refolo, P., D. Sacchini, L. Brereton, A. Gerhardus, B. Hofmann, K. Lysdahl, K. Mozygemba, W. Oortwijn, M. Tummers, and G. Van Der Wilt. Why is it so difficult to integrate ethics in Health Technology Assessment (HTA)? The epistemological viewpoint. 2016.
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
