Strategic Leadership in Times of Crisis and Adaptive Public Administration: A Developing Nation Experience of Policy Response to Economic Volatility

1. Introduction

Economic instability has for long become a common feature of global economic systems driven by fluctuations in market conditions, trade imbalances, currency devaluation and inflation (Iyoha & Oriakhi, 2019). These economic fluctuations shaped by both domestic and international factors often pose significant challenges to governance and can disrupt national economies. Recently, global economic instability has intensified with more frequent market shifts and price volatility (International Monetary Fund, 2023). The consequences of these disruptions are unpredictable often leading to rising unemployment, increased poverty, and social unrest. The capacity of governments to navigate and mitigate such economic disturbances is essential for preserving national stability and fostering sustainable long-term development.

Developing economies like that of Nigeria which this study focused on has long faced challenges stemming from economic disruptions primarily due to its heavy reliance on oil exports. The country’s GDP growth is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices with oil constituting more than 90% of export revenue and approximately 60% of government earnings (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2022). Also, between 2014 and 2016 the Nigerian economy contracted by 1.6% as a result sharp drop of 70% in crude oil prices which was a downward movement from over $100 per barrel to below $30 per barrel (World Bank, 2017). This external shock worsened existing vulnerabilities including inflation, exchange rate volatility and high unemployment. In 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate peaked at 24.08% marking the highest level in nearly two decades and underscoring the serious economic challenges the country faces (National Bureau of Statistics, 2023).

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, he inherited an economy burdened by high inflation, a depreciating naira, an ongoing energy crisis and an unemployment rate above 30% (National Bureau of Statistics, 2023). Apart from facing these challenges, it also faced the challenge of managing the broader global economic downturn and fluctuations in oil prices. His government's response to these economic challenges has been the subject of widespread scrutiny as Nigerians demand both immediate relief and long-term stability from these economic anomalies. Based on these, policies such as the removal of fuel subsidies and fiscal reforms reflect the President’s approach to crisis governance and adaptive public administration. Adaptive public administration plays crucial roles in responding to these crises by emphasizing the need for public institutions to be flexible and responsive to evolving challenges. In times of economic instability, adaptive governance requires governments to swiftly adjust policies and strategies in line with changing conditions. These approaches not only address immediate economic concerns but also builds frameworks that promote long-term resilience and sustainability.

Providing solutions to economic instability is of paramount importance for Nigeria given the long-standing historical effects of such disruptions. Evidence shows that the country's economy has been plagued by unsustainable fiscal policies, over-reliance on oil revenues and insufficient diversification. Specifically, during the 1980s, a sharp decline in oil prices precipitated a severe economic downturn which resulted to foreign exchange shortages and deep recession (Oladipo & Alimi, 2021). Also, the 1990s saw the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) which aimed to rectify fiscal imbalances but instead exacerbated poverty and social dislocation (Iyoha & Oriakhi, 2019). More recently, the 2014 to 2016 oil price collapse significantly contributed to the recession as well as falling foreign exchange reserves and escalating public debt the country fell into at that time (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2017). Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic intensified these vulnerabilities causing the Nigerian economy to contract by 1.8% in 2020 while oil revenues continued to plummet (World Bank, 2021). It therefore becomes important to find out whether this administration has learned from these historical precedents and how they have responded to these challenges with policies aimed at diversifying Nigeria’s economy and stabilizing the public sector.

Precisely, this study examined Nigerian presidents’ responses to economic volatility, evaluating both short-term outcomes and long-term implications for Nigeria’s economic stability. The research will explore the application of adaptive public administration in managing these economic challenges, providing insights into how Nigeria’s governance structures have evolved to handle periods of economic instability. While previous studies such as those by Oladipo & Alimi (2021) and Ijeoma (2018) have examined Nigeria’s economic governance and crisis management. Their studies were limited by their focus which was largely on historical analysis and specific policy areas with no effort at examining the holistic adaptive strategies of the current administration. In more specific way, Oladipo & Alimi (2021) provided a comprehensive review of Nigeria’s response to past global oil price shocks but their study does not engage with the latest policy shifts under President Tinubu particularly regarding the diversification of the economy and the removal of fuel subsidy. Similarly, Ijeoma (2018) investigated the relationship between economic volatility and governance but does not offer a focused analysis of the ongoing policy reforms under the new administration nor does it apply the framework of adaptive public administration in the same manner as this study. Therefore, this research filled these gaps by offering a contemporary analysis of President Tinubu’s crisis governance and policy responses by contributing fresh perspectives to the literature on adaptive public administration and economic stability in Nigeria.

2. Methodology

This study utilized a quantitative research design with the use of survey questionnaire instrument. The study was conducted using a structured questionnaire which were administered to a sample of 500 civil servants in South-East Nigeria. South-East Nigeria consists of five states (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo). The region is predominantly inhabited by the Igbo ethnic group and it plays a significant role in Nigeria’s economic and political landscape. Traditionally, the South-East Nigeria has been a hub for commerce, industry and education with cities like Aba, Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Owerri and Umuahia serving as major trade centres. The region is also known for its entrepreneurial spirit particularly in the informal sector, although it faces developmental challenges, including infrastructure deficits and high unemployment rates. The selection of South-East Nigeria for this study was intended to provide insights into how civil servants in a dynamic, economically significant region perceive the impacts of President Tinubu’s economic policies particularly in the context of ongoing economic instability (Ezeani & Nwachukwu, 2024). Apart from this, the selection of the location served the dual purpose of using both civil servants and business owners as respondents for the study with the civil servants being in the know of business owners’ perception of the policies of this present regime on the businesses.

The administration of the 500 civil servants followed a purposive sampling method through the help of 10 research assistants who were trained before the data collection. The choice of the purposive sampling method was to ensure that civil servants employed were those that have worked for a minimum of 5 years to ensure they were working before the regime of the current president in order to clearly differentiate if anything has changed in the management of volatility or not. The minimum education requirement for selection of the research assistance used in the study was Bachelor of Science degree in any Social Science Courses. The trained research assistant worked in pairs for security reasons and to also ensure the write information is elicited from the respondents. The method of administering the questionnaire used was the interviewer administered questionnaire method which allowed one of the pair to ask the questions and further explain it where necessary and another pair fills the response of the civil servant. This method not only ensures that the right information is elicited from the respondent but also eliminates the possibility of getting invalid information. Before the commencement of the interview, the civil servants were informed about the entire sections of the questionnaire and their consent secured before it started.

The questionnaire was designed to capture apart from the civil servants’ characteristics information across the three primary objectives of this study. Specifically, the questions for the objectives of the study were tailored to assess the effectiveness of economic policies based on the application of adaptive governance and the impacts of these policies on Nigeria's economic performance. The questions in the survey are aligned with each research objective in order to ensure a clear connection between the data collected and the study’s aims. The data collection was done from 14 to 31 January 2025 across the 5 states.

3. Effectiveness of Nigerian Policy Responses to Economic Volatility

This objective evaluated the economic policies implemented by President Tinubu’s administration including fiscal reforms, energy sector interventions, and measures to address oil dependency. Survey questions elicited civil servants’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of these policies. The below questions developed in likert scaled form were used to address this objective.

Questions:

• How would you rate the overall effectiveness of President Tinubu’s economic policies in addressing Nigeria’s current economic volatility?
• How effective do you think the fiscal reforms introduced by President Tinubu have been in controlling inflation?
• In your opinion, have President Tinubu’s policies improved the exchange rate stability of the Nigerian Naira?
• Do you believe the removal of fuel subsidies under President Tinubu’s administration was necessary for economic stability?
• Do you think the administration’s efforts to diversify Nigeria’s economy away from oil dependency have been successful so far?
• How well has President Tinubu’s government managed the energy sector crisis (such as electricity and fuel supply)?
• To what extent have the policy responses of the Tinubu administration helped reduce unemployment rates in Nigeria?

3.1. Examination of How Strategic Leadership and Adaptive Public Administration Principles Have Been Applied in Nigeria’s Governance Response to Economic Crises

This objective examined the extent to which adaptive public administration principles, such as flexibility, innovation and responsiveness have been incorporated into Nigeria’s governance framework during economic instability. The below questions were logically formulated and used to tackle the objective.

Questions:

• How would you rate the Nigerian government’s ability to adapt quickly to changes in the global economic environment under President Tinubu’s leadership?
• In your opinion, how effectively has the government communicated its policies during times of economic uncertainty?
• How responsive do you think public administration institutions have been to the economic needs of citizens during the Tinubu administration?
• Do you feel that the Nigerian government has been flexible in adjusting its policies as the economic situation evolved?
• How well has the government coordinated with key economic stakeholders (such as private sector, civil society, international organizations) in addressing the economic crisis?
• To what extent has the Nigerian government used data and research to inform its policy decisions during the economic crisis?
• How well do you think public administration in Nigeria has integrated long-term economic planning with immediate crisis response measures?

3.2. Evaluation of the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of President Tinubu’s Economic Policies on Nigeria’s Economic Stability and Growth

The third objective assessed both the immediate and longer-term effects of the economic policies under President Tinubu. Survey questions will focus on key economic indicators such as inflation, investment climate, exchange rate stability and employment. The questions below were carefully formulated to help address the objective.

Questions:

• Do you believe President Tinubu’s economic policies have led to any immediate improvements in Nigeria’s economic conditions?
• How would you assess the long-term prospects for Nigeria’s economic growth under the policies introduced by President Tinubu?
• To what extent have the economic policies helped improve the investment climate in Nigeria?
• Have the policies under President Tinubu’s administration resulted in a noticeable reduction in inflation rates in the short term?
• In your opinion, has the administration’s economic strategy helped to stabilize the national currency (Naira) in both the short and long term?
• How do you perceive the impact of President Tinubu’s policies on employment in Nigeria over the next 5 years?
• Do you think that President Tinubu’s economic policies have created the foundation for sustainable economic growth in the future?

4. Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation (S.D) were used in tackling the objectives of this study. The key objective questions’ responses were structured in a 4 points likert scale coded from 1 to 4 depicting lowest to top most agreement to the argument raised. Data analysis was done with Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 25 and STATA version 17. We also employed the binary logistic regression analysis to validate the result of the effectiveness of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy responses to economic volatility in Nigeria. Specifically, the dependent variable which is a binary response was captured with a binary response question on how effective the presidents’ policy responses to economic volatility in Nigeria has been with options of effective and not effective. Considering the focus of the study being on effectiveness, the response effective was categorized as 1 while not effective was categorized as 0. The key dependent variable is the factored value of the questions used to measure effectiveness of Nigerian president’ policy responses to economic volatility. Through the use of factor analysis, the responses given by the respondents for the questions were compressed to just one quantitative variable with scores depicting the ratings given by the respondents. The generated variable became the main dependent variable while sex, age, marital status, highest completed education and years of experience were used as control. However, because of poor behaviour of education variable as classifying it into tertiary or below and postgraduate education skewed it towards tertiary education, the result was omitted and was therefore omitted in our final model. To tackle the same issue with other variables, we recategorized them as currently living with spouse and not currently living with spouse for marital status. For age, we recategorized it as 40 years and below and above 40 years while, for years of experience, we categorized it as 6 to 10 years, 11 to 15 years and above 15 years. The categorizations were based on the response from the sampled civil servants.

5. Results

A total of 500 civil servants’ responses were used in this study. In each of the 5 southeastern states of Nigeria, 100 civil servants were sampled. Result shows that 57.8% of the civil servants were male with 51.4% aged 41 to 50 years. 62.6% of them were married with 89.4% having minimum of tertiary education as their highest completed formal education. Almost 70% of the sampled civil servants have worked for at least 11 years.

Table 1. Personal characteristics of sampled civil servants.

Response option	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages
Sex of civil servants
Male	289	57.8
Female	211	42.2
Age group of civil servants
30 years and above	16	3.2
31 to 40 years	161	32.2
41 to 50 years	257	51.4
Above 50 years	66	13.2
Marital status of civil servant
Single	166	33.2
Married	313	62.6
Divorced/ separated	6	1.2
Widowed	15	3.0
Highest completed formal education of civil servant
Secondary education	12	2.4
Tertiary education	447	89.4
Postgraduate education	41	8.2
Years in service as civil servant
6 to 10 years	146	29.2
11 to 15 years	162	32.4
16 to 20 years	176	35.2
Above 20 years	16	3.2

Table 1. Personal characteristics of sampled civil servants.

Response option	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages
Sex of civil servants
Male	289	57.8
Female	211	42.2
Age group of civil servants
30 years and above	16	3.2
31 to 40 years	161	32.2
41 to 50 years	257	51.4
Above 50 years	66	13.2
Marital status of civil servant
Single	166	33.2
Married	313	62.6
Divorced/ separated	6	1.2
Widowed	15	3.0
Highest completed formal education of civil servant
Secondary education	12	2.4
Tertiary education	447	89.4
Postgraduate education	41	8.2
Years in service as civil servant
6 to 10 years	146	29.2
11 to 15 years	162	32.4
16 to 20 years	176	35.2
Above 20 years	16	3.2

The results indicate a widespread perception that President Tinubu’s policy response to economic volatility have been largely ineffective with 86.8% rating his overall policy responses as ineffective or very ineffective. Fiscal reforms specifically in controlling inflation were similarly viewed as unsuccessful with 93.4% rating them as ineffective. The stability of the Naira under his policies is also seen negatively with 79% disagreeing that exchange rate stability improved. While the removal of fuel subsidies was viewed as necessary by a majority but 42% disagreeing shows mixed opinions. Economic diversification efforts away from oil dependency was largely considered unsuccessful with 96.6% perceiving little success. The management of the energy sector crisis received a similar response with 64.8% rating it as poorly or very poorly. The effort of the government to reduce unemployment rates was seen as minimal, with 98.8% rating the effect as low or very low.

Table 2. Effectiveness of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy responses to economic volatility in Nigeria.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Rate the overall effectiveness of President Tinubu’s economic policies in addressing Nigeria’s current economic volatility
Very ineffective	251	50.2	1.63 (0.71)
Ineffective	183	36.6
Effective	65	13.0
Very effective	1	0.2
Thought on effective of the fiscal reforms introduced by President Tinubu have been in controlling inflation
Very ineffective	249	49.8	1.57 (0.61)
Ineffective	218	43.6
Effective	33	6.6
Very effective	0	0
Opinion on whether President Tinubu’s policies improved the exchange rate stability of the Nigerian Naira
Strongly disagree	218	43.6	1.77 (0.77)
Disagree	177	35.4
Agree	105	21.0
Strongly agree	0	0
Believe the removal of fuel subsidies under President Tinubu’s administration was necessary for economic stability
Strongly disagree	96	19.	2.68 (1.09)
Disagree	114	22.8
Agree	143	28.6
Strongly agree	147	29.4
Thought on whether the administration’s efforts to diversify Nigeria’s economy away from oil dependency have been successful so far
Very unsuccessful	229	45.8	1.58 (0.59)
Unsuccessful	254	50.8
Successful	13	2.6
Very unsuccessful	4	0.8
Thought on President Tinubu’s government managed the energy sector crisis (such as electricity and fuel supply) well
Very poorly	149	29.8	2.07 (0.84)
Poorly	175	35.0
Well	167	33.4
Very well	9	1.8
Extent the policy responses of the Tinubu administration helped reduce unemployment rates in Nigeria
Very low extent	230	46.0	1.55 (0.52)
Low extent	264	52.8
High extent	6	1.2
Very high extent	0	0

Table 2. Effectiveness of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy responses to economic volatility in Nigeria.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Rate the overall effectiveness of President Tinubu’s economic policies in addressing Nigeria’s current economic volatility
Very ineffective	251	50.2	1.63 (0.71)
Ineffective	183	36.6
Effective	65	13.0
Very effective	1	0.2
Thought on effective of the fiscal reforms introduced by President Tinubu have been in controlling inflation
Very ineffective	249	49.8	1.57 (0.61)
Ineffective	218	43.6
Effective	33	6.6
Very effective	0	0
Opinion on whether President Tinubu’s policies improved the exchange rate stability of the Nigerian Naira
Strongly disagree	218	43.6	1.77 (0.77)
Disagree	177	35.4
Agree	105	21.0
Strongly agree	0	0
Believe the removal of fuel subsidies under President Tinubu’s administration was necessary for economic stability
Strongly disagree	96	19.	2.68 (1.09)
Disagree	114	22.8
Agree	143	28.6
Strongly agree	147	29.4
Thought on whether the administration’s efforts to diversify Nigeria’s economy away from oil dependency have been successful so far
Very unsuccessful	229	45.8	1.58 (0.59)
Unsuccessful	254	50.8
Successful	13	2.6
Very unsuccessful	4	0.8
Thought on President Tinubu’s government managed the energy sector crisis (such as electricity and fuel supply) well
Very poorly	149	29.8	2.07 (0.84)
Poorly	175	35.0
Well	167	33.4
Very well	9	1.8
Extent the policy responses of the Tinubu administration helped reduce unemployment rates in Nigeria
Very low extent	230	46.0	1.55 (0.52)
Low extent	264	52.8
High extent	6	1.2
Very high extent	0	0

To further justify the result on the of effectiveness of Nigerian president’ policy responses to economic volatility. We conducted a binary logistic regression to find out the perception of the civil servant on whether the approach of the government has translated to effective policy response to economic volatility. From the result in table 3, we discovered that the method adopted by Nigerian government significantly reduces policy effectiveness by 63% (p < 0.01). On the control variables, we discovered that civil servants who are above 40 years compared to those on 40 and below years significantly (p < 0.05) perceive the approach of the federal government of Nigeria to reduce policy effectiveness by 28%.

Table 3. Binary logistic regression for the determinants of willingness to pay.

Variables	Odds ratio	Z	P>|z|
Factored variable for government policy response	0.37	-3.57*	0.00
Sex (female)	0.95	-0.50	0.62
Marital status (Married)	0.10	-1.07	0.29
Age (above 40 years)	0.72	-2.02*	0.04
Experience in service (in years)
11 to 15 years	1.25	1.22	0.22
Above 15 years	1.47	0.96	0.34
Prob > chi2	0.00
Pseudo R2	0.36
N	491

* = significant @ 5%.

Table 3. Binary logistic regression for the determinants of willingness to pay.

Variables	Odds ratio	Z	P>|z|
Factored variable for government policy response	0.37	-3.57*	0.00
Sex (female)	0.95	-0.50	0.62
Marital status (Married)	0.10	-1.07	0.29
Age (above 40 years)	0.72	-2.02*	0.04
Experience in service (in years)
11 to 15 years	1.25	1.22	0.22
Above 15 years	1.47	0.96	0.34
Prob > chi2	0.00
Pseudo R2	0.36
N	491

* = significant @ 5%.

Our result suggests a general critical view of Nigeria's governance response to economic crises based on their adoption of adaptive public administration principles. Majority of the civil servants perceived the government’s communication of policies as ineffective with only 33.4% viewing it as effective or very effective. The adaptation to global economic changes under President Tinubu’s leadership was also seen as low with 87.2% rating it poorly. Public administration’s responsiveness was largely perceived as unresponsive with over 90% rating it as very unresponsive or unresponsive. Policy flexibility was similarly viewed negatively with 83% strongly disagreeing or disagreeing that the government has adjusted well to evolving economic situations. Coordination with economic stakeholders was seen as minimal with over 70% rating it as low or very low. The use of data and research for policy decisions was also rated poorly with more than half seeing it as low or very low. Integration of long-term planning with crisis response is regarded as insufficient, with 71.2% rating it as very low or low.

Table 4. Whether adaptive public administration principles have been applied in Nigeria’s governance response to economic crises.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Opinion on how effectively has the government communicated its policies during times of economic uncertainty
Very ineffective	144	28.8	2.08 (0.84)
Ineffective	189	37.8
Effective	152	30.4
Very effective	15	3.0
Rate the Nigerian government’s ability to adapt quickly to changes in the global economic environment under President Tinubu’s leadership
Very low rate	213	42.6	1.72 (0.73)
Low rate	223	44.6
High rate	54	10.8
Very high rate	10	2.0
Responsiveness of public administration institutions have been to the economic needs of citizens during the Tinubu administration
Very unresponsive	225	45.0	1.64 (0.66)
Unresponsive	237	47.4
Responsive	32	6.4
Very responsive	6	1.2
Feel the Nigerian government has been flexible in adjusting its policies as the economic situation evolved
Strongly disagree	205	41.0	1.78 (0.77)
Disagree	210	42.0
Agree	76	15.2
Strongly agree	9	1.8
Has the government coordinated with key economic stakeholders (such as private sector, civil society, international organizations) in addressing the economic crisis well?
Very low extent	172	34.4	1.99 (0.86)
Low extent	178	35.6
High extent	134	26.8
Very high extent	16	3.2
Extent the Nigerian government has used data and research to inform its policy decisions during the economic crisis
Very low extent	135	27.0	2.32 (1.04)
Low extent	151	30.2
High extent	132	26.4
Very high extent	82	16.4
Think public administration in Nigeria has integrated long-term economic planning with immediate crisis response measures
Very low extent	183	36.6	1.92 (0.81)
Low extent	173	34.6
High extent	144	28.8
Very high extent	0	0

Table 4. Whether adaptive public administration principles have been applied in Nigeria’s governance response to economic crises.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Opinion on how effectively has the government communicated its policies during times of economic uncertainty
Very ineffective	144	28.8	2.08 (0.84)
Ineffective	189	37.8
Effective	152	30.4
Very effective	15	3.0
Rate the Nigerian government’s ability to adapt quickly to changes in the global economic environment under President Tinubu’s leadership
Very low rate	213	42.6	1.72 (0.73)
Low rate	223	44.6
High rate	54	10.8
Very high rate	10	2.0
Responsiveness of public administration institutions have been to the economic needs of citizens during the Tinubu administration
Very unresponsive	225	45.0	1.64 (0.66)
Unresponsive	237	47.4
Responsive	32	6.4
Very responsive	6	1.2
Feel the Nigerian government has been flexible in adjusting its policies as the economic situation evolved
Strongly disagree	205	41.0	1.78 (0.77)
Disagree	210	42.0
Agree	76	15.2
Strongly agree	9	1.8
Has the government coordinated with key economic stakeholders (such as private sector, civil society, international organizations) in addressing the economic crisis well?
Very low extent	172	34.4	1.99 (0.86)
Low extent	178	35.6
High extent	134	26.8
Very high extent	16	3.2
Extent the Nigerian government has used data and research to inform its policy decisions during the economic crisis
Very low extent	135	27.0	2.32 (1.04)
Low extent	151	30.2
High extent	132	26.4
Very high extent	82	16.4
Think public administration in Nigeria has integrated long-term economic planning with immediate crisis response measures
Very low extent	183	36.6	1.92 (0.81)
Low extent	173	34.6
High extent	144	28.8
Very high extent	0	0

The short-term and long-term impacts of President Tinubu’s economic policies on Nigeria’s economic stability and growth shows that the sampled civil servants believes that the policies have had limited immediate impact on Nigeria’s economic conditions with over 85% disagreeing that there have been improvements. The long-term prospects for economic growth under his policies were also seen negatively with 70.2% rating it as negative or very negative. The investment climate was rated to have improved to a low extent with 83.2% perceiving minimal positive effects. In terms of inflation reduction, 90.6% reported little to no impact. The stabilization of the national currency was similarly viewed as weak with 77.6% perceiving minimal improvement. Employment impacts over the next 5 years were seen as mostly negative with 67.4% anticipating poor outcomes. On the policies of this regime creating the foundation for sustainable economic growth, their view was skeptical as 73.8% perceived it to have made minimal progress.

Table 5. Short-term and long-term impacts of President Tinubu’s economic policies on Nigeria’s economic stability and growth.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Believes President Tinubu’s economic policies have led to any immediate improvements in Nigeria’s economic conditions
Strongly disagree	217	43.4	1.72 (0.71)
Disagree	208	41.6
Agree	75	15.0
Strongly agree	0	0
Assess the long-term prospects for Nigeria’s economic growth under the policies introduced by President Tinubu
Very negative	139	27.8	2.16 (0.99)
Negative	212	42.4
Positive	79	15.8
Very positive	70	14.0
Extent the economic policies helped improve the investment climate in Nigeria
Very low extent	198	39.6	1.77 (0.72)
Low extent	218	43.6
High extent	84	16.8
Very high extent	0	0
policies under President Tinubu’s administration have resulted in a noticeable reduction in inflation rates in the short term
Very low extent	205	41.0	1.68 (0.64)
Low extent	248	49.6
High extent	47	9.4
Very high extent	0	0
Opinion on whether the administration’s economic strategy helped to stabilize the national currency (Naira) in both the short and long term
Very low extent	225	45.0	1.77 (0.79)
Low extent	163	32.6
High extent	112	22.4
Very high extent	0	0
Perception of the impact of President Tinubu’s policies on employment in Nigeria over the next 5 years
Very negative impact	178	35.6	2.01 (0.89)
Negative impact	159	31.8
Positive impact	144	28.8
Very positive impact	19	3.8
Think that President Tinubu’s economic policies have created the foundation for sustainable economic growth in the future
Very low extent	157	31.4	1.97 (0.81)
Low extent	212	42.4
High extent	118	23.6
Very high extent	13	2.6

Table 5. Short-term and long-term impacts of President Tinubu’s economic policies on Nigeria’s economic stability and growth.

Response options	Frequencies N = 500	Percentages	Mean (S.D)
Believes President Tinubu’s economic policies have led to any immediate improvements in Nigeria’s economic conditions
Strongly disagree	217	43.4	1.72 (0.71)
Disagree	208	41.6
Agree	75	15.0
Strongly agree	0	0
Assess the long-term prospects for Nigeria’s economic growth under the policies introduced by President Tinubu
Very negative	139	27.8	2.16 (0.99)
Negative	212	42.4
Positive	79	15.8
Very positive	70	14.0
Extent the economic policies helped improve the investment climate in Nigeria
Very low extent	198	39.6	1.77 (0.72)
Low extent	218	43.6
High extent	84	16.8
Very high extent	0	0
policies under President Tinubu’s administration have resulted in a noticeable reduction in inflation rates in the short term
Very low extent	205	41.0	1.68 (0.64)
Low extent	248	49.6
High extent	47	9.4
Very high extent	0	0
Opinion on whether the administration’s economic strategy helped to stabilize the national currency (Naira) in both the short and long term
Very low extent	225	45.0	1.77 (0.79)
Low extent	163	32.6
High extent	112	22.4
Very high extent	0	0
Perception of the impact of President Tinubu’s policies on employment in Nigeria over the next 5 years
Very negative impact	178	35.6	2.01 (0.89)
Negative impact	159	31.8
Positive impact	144	28.8
Very positive impact	19	3.8
Think that President Tinubu’s economic policies have created the foundation for sustainable economic growth in the future
Very low extent	157	31.4	1.97 (0.81)
Low extent	212	42.4
High extent	118	23.6
Very high extent	13	2.6

6. Discussion

Good policies by the government ensures that economic volatility is effectively addressed in the nation. Findings of the study indicates a stark perception of inefficacy regarding President Tinubu's policy responses to Nigeria's economic volatility. A significant proportion of the respondents viewed the policies as ineffective particularly in controlling inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate. This suggests that there are deep-rooted challenges within the government’s ability to craft and execute policies that respond to the complex and volatile nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape. The structural vulnerabilities of the Nigerian economy especially the over reliance on oil revenues seem to have compounded the failure of fiscal policies aimed at reducing inflation. This perception is consistent with past studies who argued that despite efforts to diversify the Nigerian economy, her over reliance on oil continues to make it vulnerable to external shocks (Ajakaiye & Tella, 2003). The present Nigerian governments’ failure to stabilize key economic variables such as inflation and the Naira suggests that there is an urgent need for structural reforms that goes beyond symptomatic policy fixes and address deeper governance issues.

Economic challenges such as high inflation, rising unemployment and energy crisis remains a major concern for Nigeria. Our findings indicate that the current administration has not effectively addressed these pivotal challenges. The persistent challenges within the energy sector along with the failure to alleviate unemployment underscore ongoing governance weaknesses. This corroborates the submission of Ajayi (2017) who traced these lingering inefficiencies in the country’s energy sector to outdated infrastructure, insufficient investment and poor policy implementation. Similarly, the failure to reduce unemployment as revealed by our findings validates the criticism of Olaniyan & Okemakinde, (2018) who argued that the inadequacy of labour market policies in adapting to the country’s growing population and evolving workforce dynamics were key reasons for high unemployment in Nigeria. Moreover, this government’s struggle to control inflation despite various measures signals deeper issues of supply-side constraints and fiscal mismanagement. These findings point to systemic challenges in managing critical areas and emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive long-term strategies aimed at bridging infrastructure gaps and addressing governance inefficiencies. Without tackling these fundamental challenges, policies aimed at stabilizing inflation, creating jobs or resolving the energy crisis will likely fall short in the country.

Adopting adaptive public administration requires government to tackle economic volatility with immediate remedy and building the automatic absorber for future reoccurrence. Our findings reveal a considerable doubt about the government ability to foster sustainable growth and development. We discovered that civil servants have a very big doubts about the future of the economy under this administration as the policies initiated by the government have not yielded positive results. The finding in this study validates the submission of Osinubi & Ariole (2016) that persistent barriers to economic diversification included weak infrastructure, inconsistent policy implementation and political instability. The continued dominance of oil sector highlights the absence of effective strategies to reduce dependency on it. Further findings in this study suggest that Nigeria’s economic potential is significantly constrained by these structural inefficiencies and the absence of coherent policies capable of fostering a more resilient and diversified economy. Additionally, there is widespread skepticism about the sustainability of the current administration’s approach to economic growth. This skepticism is not unprecedented as prior research (Ogunleye & Akintoye, 2020) has underscored Nigeria’s difficulty in establishing a solid foundation for future growth due to inconsistent policy execution, poor infrastructure and ineffective governance. Therefore, the skepticism signals a lack of confidence among many Nigerians regarding the administration's ability to implement a coherent and sustainable development plan. This situation highlights the critical need for policy consistency, long-term planning and the integration of crisis-response measures into broader development strategies to secure a more stable and prosperous economic future in the country.

Economic volatility cannot be effectively tackled through adaptive public administration without a responsive government. Our findings reveal that the current administration has been largely unresponsive to global economic shifts which suggests a lack of flexibility needed for effective policy execution. This points to significant deficiencies in Nigeria’s public administration system which is often characterized by slow decision-making, inadequate coordination and poor communication all of which are vital for managing economic crises. The findings here were somewhat echoed by World Bank (2020) that Nigeria’s governance system suffers from bureaucratic inertia that hinders timely crisis response. Additionally, while the government’s communication efforts were noted as ineffective, it validates the concern raised by Okeke (2020) who argued that poor communication between the government and the public exacerbates mistrust and impedes the success of policy initiatives. Taken together, these findings suggest that Nigeria’s public administration must undergo a fundamental transformation to become more agile, responsive and communicative with the capacity for rapid decision-making and adaptive policies that can respond to evolving circumstances.

Collaboration with key economic stakeholders and the use of data for evidence-based policymaking are important for adaptive public administration to be effective. The findings in this study highlight the lack of stakeholder involvement in critical decision-making underscoring the insular nature of Nigeria’s policymaking process. This finding is consistent with Aliyu’s (2016) critique which noted that Nigeria’s policymaking often excludes critical players such as the private sector, international organizations and other key stakeholders from essential decision-making processes. More so, our study found that data-driven decision-making remains underdeveloped in Nigeria which aligns with Imoukhuede’s (2019) submission that many policy decisions are based on insufficient and poor-quality data that often leads to ineffective outcomes. There is therefore a clear need for a more inclusive evidence-based approach to policymaking where data and feedback from relevant stakeholders inform decisions. This would improve the quality of policies and encourage greater support from the various economic actors crucial to the nation’s development.

7. Conclusions

Although economic volatilities are features of global economies, the negative effects they have which hinders economic growth and development makes tackling them of veritable importance to countries. Theoretically, adoption of adaptive public administration is crucial to that effect. Also, effective governance in dynamic environments requires the ability to adapt policies to changing conditions and proactively manage crises. The findings of this study suggest that the governance model under President Tinubu’s administration has struggled to fully implement these adaptive principles with current policies proving ineffective addressing systemic issues affecting the nation. This highlights a significant gap in the country’s governance approach which if addressed could lead to more responsive and impactful policy outcomes. To improve crisis management, Nigeria and other developing countries must develop a policy framework that is more adaptable to fluctuating economic conditions, embracing continuous evaluation and swift policy adjustments based on real-time data. Enhancing collaboration with key economic stakeholders including the organized private sector and international organizations will ensure the right policies are adopted and it will improve the effectiveness of such policies. Additionally, prioritizing economic diversification by addressing the structural barriers that hinder growth in other sectors is crucial. Strengthening the role of data and research in policymaking will further ensure that decisions are made based on sound evidence and comprehensive economic analysis. Lastly, fostering transparent and consistent communication with the public is vital to building trust and facilitating better understanding of policy changes.