This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use conflicts and their ecological implications in Tianshui City, focusing on identifying the underlying factors driving spatial heterogeneity and analyzing the associated ecological risks. By employing advanced analytical methods, including the natural breaks (Jenks) classification, semivariance geostatistical analysis, and bivariate LISA clustering, we systematically categorized land use conflicts and analyzed their patterns and drivers over four decades (1980–2020).
4.1. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land Use Conflicts
The results demonstrate a clear upward trend in land use conflicts during the study period. Conflict-free areas decreased by 1,047.61 km², while mild-conflict zones shrank by 184.22 km². Conversely, high-conflict zones expanded by over 1,110.92 km², and the size of severe-conflict areas nearly doubled. These changes were particularly pronounced in urbanized and agriculturally productive regions, such as the Weihe River basin, reflecting growing pressures on land resources caused by intensified human activities. The application of the natural breaks classification method effectively delineated distinct levels of land use conflict, providing a comprehensive view of their spatial distribution and intensity across the study area[
43].
The rapid expansion of severe-conflict zones is especially concerning, as these areas often experience the most significant negative impacts on both ecological systems and human well-being. The near doubling of their extent underscores an urgent need for targeted and timely measures to prevent further environmental degradation and mitigate the risk of social unrest. The concentration of these conflicts in urban centers and fertile agricultural regions highlights the intricate challenge of balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability[
44].
Supporting these findings, semivariance geostatistical analysis revealed patterns of spatial autocorrelation and clustering in land use conflicts. This analysis identified clear hotspots and coldspots, offering valuable insights for policymakers to prioritize intervention strategies[
45]. Hotspots, typically located in urban areas and along agricultural frontiers, are characterized by intense competition for land resources. In contrast, coldspots, usually found in more remote and less developed regions, exhibit lower levels of conflict. However, the study observed a decline in coldspot areas, particularly in the forested mountainous regions of southern Tianshui City, raising concerns about potential shifts in land use practices and conflict dynamics[
46]. These changes could result in new forms of ecological degradation and social tensions, emphasizing the need for adaptive management approaches to address emerging risks effectively[
47].
The bivariate LISA clustering analysis further illustrated the intricate relationship between land use conflicts and ecological risks. A significant spatial negative correlation between arable land and non-conflict zones highlights the critical importance of preserving agricultural land. Protecting these areas is not only essential for maintaining ecological stability but also for minimizing land use conflicts, as the conversion of agricultural land often intensifies resource competition and escalates conflict intensity[
48].
4.2. Drivers of Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Dynamics
The findings indicate a temporal shift in the dominant factors influencing land use conflict patterns. Structural factors such as topography and climate initially played a major role in shaping spatial heterogeneity. However, over time, stochastic factors—including rapid urbanization and socio-economic development—emerged as the primary drivers. For example, the conversion of arable land to urban areas in regions undergoing rapid land use transitions exhibited strong spatial correlations between high land use conflicts and ecological risks[
49].
Semivariance geostatistical analysis revealed significant spatial autocorrelation and variability in land use conflicts, highlighting the importance of fine-scale analysis. While topographic and climatic conditions predominantly influenced spatial heterogeneity in the early decades, stochastic factors such as policy interventions and human activities have increasingly driven conflict patterns at finer spatial scales (<500 meters). These findings align with existing studies that emphasize the growing influence of human-induced drivers on land use conflicts.
The transition from natural to anthropogenic drivers underscores the need for integrated land use planning and policy frameworks that can adapt to these changing dynamics. Policies aimed at mitigating land use conflicts must consider both the ecological and socio-economic dimensions of land use, ensuring that development is sustainable and equitable. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal analysis of land use conflicts highlights the importance of local-scale interventions tailored to specific regional contexts.
In regions experiencing rapid urbanization, for instance, policies promoting compact city development and green infrastructure can help alleviate land use pressures and reduce ecological risks. Similarly, in agriculturally fertile areas, incentives for sustainable farming practices and land conservation programs can help maintain ecological integrity and reduce conflicts over land resources.
The integration of geostatistical analysis and spatial modeling in land use planning can provide valuable insights for policymakers and planners. By identifying hotspots and coldspots of land use conflicts and ecological risks, these tools can help prioritize areas for intervention and inform the design of effective policies. Additionally, the analysis of temporal trends in land use conflict drivers can guide the development of adaptive management strategies that can evolve in response to changing conditions.
Overall, the findings of this study underscore the complexity of land use conflicts and their interactions with ecological risks. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that integrates ecological, socio-economic, and policy dimensions. By understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use conflicts, policymakers and planners can develop more effective strategies to promote sustainable land use and reduce ecological degradation.
4.3 Ecological Implications of Land Use Conflicts
The bivariate LISA clustering analysis has shed new light on the intricate relationship between land use conflicts and ecological risks. It was observed that areas with intense conflicts often coincided with zones of high ecological risk, particularly in regions undergoing rapid urban expansion. This pattern emphasizes the critical need to embed ecological risk assessments into land use planning frameworks. Urbanization in the fertile alluvial plains of the Weihe River basin in Tianshui has not only escalated conflicts but also amplified ecological degradation risks, such as habitat fragmentation and loss of biodiversity.
To address these challenges, incorporating ecological corridors and green buffer zones into urban development plans could serve as a vital strategy. Such measures would enhance ecological connectivity and simultaneously provide urban residents with green spaces for recreation, thereby improving both environmental and social well-being.
The findings also reveal that land use conflicts tend to magnify vulnerabilities in ecosystems that are already stressed. In arid and semi-arid regions, for instance, excessive groundwater extraction for agriculture has led to severe land degradation and heightened competition for water resources, further exacerbating ecological risks. Resolving these issues requires a balanced approach that harmonizes agricultural productivity with ecological sustainability. Strategies such as promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, introducing water-efficient irrigation systems, and encouraging agroforestry can play a pivotal role in mitigating these risks[
50].
The implications of land use conflicts extend beyond local scales, with far-reaching effects on regional and global biodiversity. The loss of natural habitats driven by urban sprawl and intensified agricultural practices disrupts species migration, alters population dynamics, and accelerates biodiversity loss on a global scale. To counter these trends, policymakers and urban planners must take a comprehensive view of the ecological impacts of land use decisions and prioritize the conservation of critical habitats and biodiversity hotspots.
4.4. Implications for Policy and Management
The integration of ecological risk assessment into land use planning frameworks is essential for mitigating the multifaceted impacts of conflicts on ecological systems. By identifying conflict hotspots and high-risk zones, policymakers can prioritize conservation and restoration measures. For instance, promoting compact urban development alongside green infrastructure can effectively alleviate land use pressures in conflict-prone areas. Additionally, adaptive management strategies that incorporate continuous monitoring of land use patterns and emerging drivers, such as climate variability, can enhance the resilience and sustainability of land use policies.Facilitating community participation and stakeholder collaboration is critical to ensuring that land use policies address local needs and concerns. Involving local communities in decision-making provides valuable insights into ecological knowledge and social dynamics, enabling the development of culturally relevant and effective land use strategies. Moreover, policies should emphasize sustainable land use practices that minimize ecological impacts while supporting economic growth. Specific measures could include advancing sustainable agricultural technologies, encouraging renewable energy adoption, and promoting eco-tourism. Balancing ecological sustainability with economic development creates a win-win scenario that benefits both human and natural systems.Finally, recognizing the intricate relationships between land use conflicts and ecological risks across different spatial scales is crucial. This recognition necessitates coordinated efforts among various levels of government and enhanced international collaboration to address these challenges comprehensively. By sharing best practices, technological innovations, and resources, policymakers can develop innovative solutions to advance sustainable land use while safeguarding biodiversity at local and global scales.
4.5. Methodological Advancements and Future Directions
This study extends existing research by integrating geostatistical techniques with LISA clustering to provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use conflicts and ecological risks. The approach allows for the identification of hotspots and coldspots of conflicts, offering actionable insights for targeted interventions. Future research should expand this methodology to incorporate higher-resolution datasets, multi-variate statistical models, and machine learning techniques to capture complex interactions and feedback loops. Cross-regional comparative studies are also recommended to validate and generalize these findings.
Furthermore, integrating remote sensing and GIS technologies can enhance the precision and timeliness of ecological risk assessments. These technologies provide valuable data on land cover changes, vegetation health, and soil moisture, which are crucial for understanding and predicting ecological vulnerabilities. By leveraging these advancements, future studies can achieve a more nuanced understanding of land use conflicts and their ecological impacts, paving the way for more effective and targeted conservation measures. Additionally, incorporating socio-economic data into ecological risk assessments can provide a more holistic view of the complex interactions between human activities and ecological systems. This approach can help identify the root causes of land use conflicts and inform policies that address both ecological and social dimensions of sustainability.