Submitted:
07 April 2024
Posted:
08 April 2024
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
This paper concentrates on the general birth-death processes with two different types of catastrophes. The Laplace transform of transition probability function for birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes are is successfully expressed with the Laplace transform of transition probability function of the birth-death processes without catastrophe. The first effective catastrophe occurrence time is considered. The Laplace transform of its probability density function, expectation and variance are obtained.
Keywords:
Birth-death process
; Catastrophe
; Laplace transform
; Probability density function
1. Introduction
Markov process is a very important branch of stochastic processes and has a very wide range of applications. Many research works can be referenced, such as, Anderson [1], Asmussen [3], Chen [9] and others.
The birth-death process is a very important class of Markov processes, which has been widely applied in finance, communications, population science and queueing theory. In the past few decades, there are many works on generalizing the ordinary birth-death process and make the theory of birth-death processes more and more fruitful. Recently, the stochastic models with catastrophe have aroused much research interest. For example, Chen Zhang and Liu [5], Economou and Fakinos [12], Pakes [18] considered the instantaneous distribution of continuous-time Markov chains with catastrophes. Chen and Renshaw [7,8] analyzed the effect of catastrophes on the queuing model. Zhang and Li [20] extended these results to the queuing model with catastrophes. Li and Zhang [17] further considered the effect of catastrophes on the queuing model. Di Crescenzo et al [10] discussed the probability distribution and the relevant numerical characteristics of the first occurrence time of an effective disaster for general birth-death process with catastrophes. Other related works can be seen from Artalejo [2], Bayer and Boxma [4], Chen, Pollett, Li and Zhang [6], Dudin and Karolik [11], Gelenbe [13], Gelenbe, Glynn and Sigman [14], Jain and Sigman [15],
In this paper, we mainly consider the property of the first occurrence time of effective catastrophe for the general birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes.
We start our discussion by presenting the infinitesimal generator, i.e., the so called q-matrix.
Definition 1.
Let be a continuous-time Markov chain on state space , if its q-matrix is by
where and are given by
and
with and , respectively.
Then is called a birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes. Its probability transition function is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
Remark 1.
By Definition 1, α and β describe the rates of catastrophes. We called them α-catastrophe and β-catastrophe, respectively. That is, α-catastrophe kills all the individuals in the system, while β-catastrophe partially kills the individuals in the system with only one individual left. If , i.e., there is no catastrophe, then degenerates into an ordinary birth-death process, which is denoted by , its q-matrix is denoted by . The probability transition function of is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
2. Probability Transition Function
From Definition 1, we see that a catastrophe may reduce the system state to 0 or 1. However, since natural death rate , when the system state transfer to 0 from 1 or transfer to 1 from 2, it is difficult to distinguish whether it was a catastrophe or a natural death. Therefore, it is important to discuss such effective catastrophe. For this purpose, we first construct the relationship of and (or equivalently, and ).
Lemma 1. (i) satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or equivalently, in the resolvent version,
(ii) satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or equivalently, in the resolvent version,
Proof. (i) By Kolmogorov forward equations and the honesty of , we know that
and
The other equalities of (i) and (ii) follow directly from Kolmogorov forward equations and Laplace transform. The proof is complete. □
The following theorem plays an important role in the later discussion, it reveals the relationship of and (or equivalently, and ).
Theorem 1.
For any , we have
or equivalently in resolvent version,
Proof.
We first assume . The corresponding process is denoted by and its probability transition function is denoted by . Denote . Let be a Poisson process with parameter , which is independent of , note that can be viewed as a catastrophe flow. Let be the time until the first catastrophe before time t. Then has the truncated exponential law
Denote . Let be an independent sequence copies of but with . Define by
Then, is a continuous-time Markov chain, it evolves like , at the first catastrophe time, it jumps to state 1, and then evolves like , at the next catastrophe time, it jumps to state 1 again, and so on. Let be the probability transition function of . Then
where and is the mathematical expectation under . Denote for a moment. Then the above equality equals to
Since and , we have
and
If , then
Therefore,
It is easy to check that . This implies that and are same in sense of distribution. Hence,
Now consider the general case . Denote . Let be a Poisson process with parameter , which is independent of . can be viewed as a catastrophe flow with parameter . Let be the time until the first catastrophe before time t. Then has the truncated exponential law
Denote . Let be an independent sequence copies of but with . Define by
Let be the probability transition function of . By a similar argument as above, we know that
By (8)
It is easy to check that . This implies that and are same in sense of distribution. Hence,
3. The First Occurrence Time of Effective Catastrophe
We now consider the first effective catastrophe of . Let is the first occurrence time of effective catastrophe for starting from state j. The probability density function of is denoted by . Let and be the first occurrence time of effective -catastrophe and effective -catastrophe, respectively. It is obvious that .
The property of or can be similarly discussed as in Di Crescenzo et al [10]. In this paper, we mainly consider the property of and the probabilities and . For this purpose, we construct a new process such that coincides with until the occurrence of catastrophe, but enter into an absorbing state if the first effective catastrophe is -type and enter into another absorbing state if the first effective catastrophe is -type. Therefore the state space of is and its q-matrix is given by
Let and be the -transition function and -resolvent.
Lemma 2.
For any , we have
or equivalently, in resolvent version,
Proof.
By Kolmogorov forward equation,
We now investigate the relationship of and . For this purpose, define
and
Theorem 2.
Let be the -resolvent. Then
and
where
and
with being given by .
By Theorem 1, we know that
Denote
Then, can be represented as
Theorem 3.
Let be the -resolvent and be the -resolvent. Then,
where
and
Proof.
Note that the right hand sides of (16) and (17) are well defined, we can define and for . Hence, it follows from Theorem 2 that for any ,
and
Therefore, by some algebra, one can get
Similarly,
By Theorems 1 and 2, for any ,
where and are given in (16) and (17). By (35) and (36), we know (34) holds for .
As for , by (13) and Theorem 1,
By the definition of ,
On the other hand, by some algebra, one can see that
We now consider the probability distribution of and the related probabilities and . It is easy to see that is differentiable in t for . Let for . Also, let denote the Laplace transform of for and denote the Laplace transform of .
Theorem 4.
For any , we have
and
where and are given in Theorem 3. In particular,
where and are given by .
Proof.
By the definitions of and , we know that for any ,
and
Therefore, and . Hence,
and
Note that , the last two assertions hold. The proof is complete. □
We now consider the mathematical expectation and variance of .
Theorem 5.
For any ,
and
where and are given by .
Proof.
By Theorem 4, we have
Differentiating the above equality yields that
Let and note that , we have
Differentiating (37) yields that
Let in the above equality yields that
Therefore,
The proof is complete. □
Finally, if or , we get the following result which is due to Di Crescenzo et al [10].
Corollary 1. (i) If , then for any ,
and
(ii) If , then for any ,
and
Proof.
If , by Theorem 3,
Therefore,
and
Hence, by Theorem 4,
and
(i) is proved. The proof of (ii) is similar. □
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771452, No. 11971486).
References
- Anderson, W. Continuous-Time Markov Chains: An Applications-Oriented Approach. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1991.
- Artalejo, J. G-networks: a versatile approach for work removal in queueing networks. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 2000, 126: 233-249.
- Asmussen, S. Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd edn. New York: John Wiley, 2003.
- Bayer, N. and Boxma O.J. Wiener-Hopf analysis of an M/G/1 queue with negative customers and of a related class of random walks. Queueing Systems, 1996, 23: 301-316.
- Chen, A.Y. , Zhang H.J., Liu K. Birth-death processes with disasters and instantaneous resurrection. Adv. in Appl. Probab. 2004, 36: 267-C292.
- Chen, A.Y. , Pollett P., Li J.P. and Zhang H.J. Markovian bulk-arrival and bulk-service queues with state-dependent control. Queueing Systems, 2: 64.
- Chen, A.Y. , Renshaw E. The M/M/1 queue with mass exodus and mass arrives when empty. J. Appl. Probab. 1997, 34: 192-C207.
- Chen, A.Y. , Renshaw E. Markov bulk-arriving queues with state-dependent control at idle time. Adv. Appl. Probab. 2004, 36: 499-524.
- Chen, M.F. Eigenvalues, Inequalities, and Ergodic Theory. London: Springer-Verlag, 2004.
- Di Crescenzo, A. , Giorno V., Nobile A.G. and Ricciardi L.M. A note on birth-death processes with catastrophes. Statistics and Probability Letters, 2008, 78: 2248-2257.
- Dudin, A. and Karolik A. BMAP/SM/1 queue with Markovian input of disasters and non-instantaneous recovery. Performance Evaluation, 2001, 45: 19-32.
- Economou, A. , Fakinos D. A continuous-time Markov chain under the influence of a regulating point process and applications in stochastic models with catastrophes. European J. Oper. Res. 62003, 149: 625-C640.
- Gelenbe, E. Product-form queueing networks with negative and positive customers. J. Appl. Probab. 1991,28: 656-663.
- Gelenbe E, Glynn P. and Sigman K. Queues with negative arrivals. J. Appl. Probab. 1991, 28: 245-250.
- Jain, G. and Sigman K. A Pollaczek-Khintchine formula for M/G/1 queues with disasters. J. Appl. Probab. 1996, 33: 1191-1200.
- Li, J.P. , Zhang L.N. Controlled Markovian bulk-arrival and bulk-service queues with catastrophes. Scientia Sinica(Mathematica), 2015, 45(5): 527-538.
- Li, J.P. , Zhang L.N. MX/M/c Queue with catastrophes and state-dependent control at idle time. Frontiers of Mathematics in China, 2017, 12(6): 1427-1439.
- Pakes, A.G. Killing and resurrection of Markov processes. Commun. Statist. Stochastic Models, 1997, 13: 255-269.
- Zeifman, A. and Korotysheva A. Perturbation Bounds for Mt/Mt/N Queue with Catastrophes. Stochastic Models, 2012, 28: 49-62.
- Zhang, L.N.; Li, J.P. The M/M/c queue with mass exodus and mass arrivals when empty. Journal of Applied Probability, 2015, 52(4): 990-1002.
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.