Version 1
: Received: 14 March 2024 / Approved: 15 March 2024 / Online: 15 March 2024 (13:13:40 CET)
How to cite:
Marchenko, S.; Bjella, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. Modeling Dynamics of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems Across Entire Alaska: Arctic and Subarctic Engineering Design Tool (Part-1). Preprints2024, 2024030927. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0927.v1
Marchenko, S.; Bjella, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. Modeling Dynamics of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems Across Entire Alaska: Arctic and Subarctic Engineering Design Tool (Part-1). Preprints 2024, 2024030927. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0927.v1
Marchenko, S.; Bjella, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. Modeling Dynamics of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems Across Entire Alaska: Arctic and Subarctic Engineering Design Tool (Part-1). Preprints2024, 2024030927. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0927.v1
APA Style
Marchenko, S., Bjella, K., Nicolsky, D., & Romanovsky, V. (2024). Modeling Dynamics of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems Across Entire Alaska: Arctic and Subarctic Engineering Design Tool (Part-1). Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0927.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Marchenko, S., Dmitry Nicolsky and Vladimir Romanovsky. 2024 "Modeling Dynamics of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems Across Entire Alaska: Arctic and Subarctic Engineering Design Tool (Part-1)" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202403.0927.v1
Abstract
Climate warming is expected to have pronounced effects on Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems, especially regions underlain by discontinuous and relatively warm permafrost. The main goal of this research is to evaluate the vulnerability and dynamics of permafrost under climate warming across the various ecotypes in respect of ecosystem stability, socioeconomic impact, and for better understanding possible future environmental changes. We suggested the new version of the spatially distributed permafrost dynamics model (GIPL2-MPI), which is developed in the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks. This model is based on the ecosystem approach to simulate the permafrost dynamics, which we are discussing in this paper. We combined ground-based observations and numerical freeze/thaw modeling using climate-ecosystem-permafrost interactions to understand the physical processes and mechanisms controlling permafrost physical state. We predict the changes in permafrost conditions using output from two GCMs (NCAR-CCSM4 and GFDL-CM3) and Five-Model Average Ensemble for the RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 scaled down to 1 by 1 km spatial resolution (https://uaf-snap.org/) across entire Alaska. Our result shows that by the end of the current century widespread near-surface permafrost degradation could begin everywhere in Alaska southward of the Brooks Range as well as across some spots at the North Slope Alaska.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
