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Forest site and stand structure affecting the distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Eastern Ukraine
Meshkova, V.; Borysenko, O.; Kucheryavenko, T.; Vysotska, N.; Skrylnyk, Y.; Davydenko, K.; Holusa, J. Forest Site and Stand Structure Affecting the Distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), in Eastern Ukraine. Forests2024, 15, 511.
Meshkova, V.; Borysenko, O.; Kucheryavenko, T.; Vysotska, N.; Skrylnyk, Y.; Davydenko, K.; Holusa, J. Forest Site and Stand Structure Affecting the Distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), in Eastern Ukraine. Forests 2024, 15, 511.
Meshkova, V.; Borysenko, O.; Kucheryavenko, T.; Vysotska, N.; Skrylnyk, Y.; Davydenko, K.; Holusa, J. Forest Site and Stand Structure Affecting the Distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), in Eastern Ukraine. Forests2024, 15, 511.
Meshkova, V.; Borysenko, O.; Kucheryavenko, T.; Vysotska, N.; Skrylnyk, Y.; Davydenko, K.; Holusa, J. Forest Site and Stand Structure Affecting the Distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), in Eastern Ukraine. Forests 2024, 15, 511.
Abstract
Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, an invasive phloem-boring beetle, was detected in the Luhansk Region of Ukraine in 2019. In the following years, it expanded to a large part of the Kharkiv region and the parks of Kyiv. Previous research proved that the climate in Luhansk and neighboring regions is favorable for EAB, and the lack of a host plant (Fraxinus sp.) cannot prevent pest expansion in Ukraine. Considering the necessity to detect inhabited trees in time, our current research aimed to identify the most attractive EAB forest subcompartments considering forest site conditions and stand structure. MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of EAB with high accuracy (AUC = 0.842). The most significant five variables provided 82.9% to the model, particularly «Age of trees, years», «Area of forest subcompartment, ha», «Mean height of trees, m», «The proportion of Fraxinus excelsior in the stand composition, %», and «Hygrotope index (humidity level), point». A very high probability of EAB expansion in the Luhansk region (>90 %) is predicted at 20 % of the forest area with Fraxinus sp. in the stand composition. The probability of EAB spread above 30% is predicted for 75 % of such area. To improve the forecasting accuracy, it could be necessary to consider the data on road localization along which the pest can spread passively, as well as dominate wind speed.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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