Version 1
: Received: 6 February 2024 / Approved: 6 February 2024 / Online: 6 February 2024 (17:12:02 CET)
Version 2
: Received: 29 February 2024 / Approved: 29 February 2024 / Online: 5 March 2024 (15:03:00 CET)
How to cite:
Snoun, H.; Al Harbi, M.; Nikfal, A.; Arif, A.; Hatheway, W.; A. Alamro, M.; Mihoub, A.; Krichen, M. Modeling Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Using WRF-Chem and Meteorological FASDAS Data Assimilation. Preprints2024, 2024020384. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0384.v1
Snoun, H.; Al Harbi, M.; Nikfal, A.; Arif, A.; Hatheway, W.; A. Alamro, M.; Mihoub, A.; Krichen, M. Modeling Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Using WRF-Chem and Meteorological FASDAS Data Assimilation. Preprints 2024, 2024020384. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0384.v1
Snoun, H.; Al Harbi, M.; Nikfal, A.; Arif, A.; Hatheway, W.; A. Alamro, M.; Mihoub, A.; Krichen, M. Modeling Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Using WRF-Chem and Meteorological FASDAS Data Assimilation. Preprints2024, 2024020384. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0384.v1
APA Style
Snoun, H., Al Harbi, M., Nikfal, A., Arif, A., Hatheway, W., A. Alamro, M., Mihoub, A., & Krichen, M. (2024). Modeling Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Using WRF-Chem and Meteorological FASDAS Data Assimilation. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0384.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Snoun, H., Alaeddine Mihoub and Moez Krichen. 2024 "Modeling Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption Using WRF-Chem and Meteorological FASDAS Data Assimilation" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0384.v1
Abstract
Since late December 2021, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano has been erupting in a series of large explosions. On Friday, January 15th, 2022, a particularly significant explosion sent a massive ash cloud high into the atmosphere. This study depicts the modeling of the volcanic ash dispersion from the event while incorporating meteorological data assimilation within the inline Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Two forecast scenarios: one with only meteorology and no chemistry (OMET) and one with gas, aerosol chemistry, and no assimilation (NODA) were undertaken and compared to the third forecast impacting data assimilation to distinguish the Flux Adjusting Surface Data Assimilation System (FASDAS)'s effects. Data assimilation, a process that combines real-time observations with numerical models, plays a pivotal role in enhancing the accuracy of various scientific simulations and predictions.Analysis of different scenarios reveals that the FASDAS result in lessening of planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), downward surface shortwave flux, and 2m temperature by up to 800m, 250 W.m-2 and 6°C on the land portion, respectively, while the opposite is observed nearby the eruption site. Model validation against the observations shows that the inclusion of FASDAS nudging in WRF-Chem significantly enhances the model performance in retrieving meteorological variables. The simulations also revealed significant biases in the concentration of volcanic ash around the ash cloud. Additionally, data analysis from the Copernicus TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument Sentinel-5 Precursor (TROPOMI-S5P) indicates that total SO2 emissions traveled west. This work demonstrates the significant contribution of data assimilation on the results of operational air quality predictions during violent volcanic eruption events.
Keywords
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano; WRF-Chem; FASDAS; data assimilation;
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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