Article
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Law of Variability in Science Driving Technological Evolution
Version 1
: Received: 1 December 2023 / Approved: 4 December 2023 / Online: 5 December 2023 (07:45:46 CET)
How to cite: Coccia, M. Law of Variability in Science Driving Technological Evolution. Preprints 2023, 2023120187. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202312.0187.v1 Coccia, M. Law of Variability in Science Driving Technological Evolution. Preprints 2023, 2023120187. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202312.0187.v1
Abstract
A proposed interpretation of the characteristics and causes of the variation in science dynamics for technological evolution is described. The theoretical approach focuses on variability in research topics that guide scientific and technological evolution. Statistical method verifies the proposed approach by applying entropy, measures of dispersion and variance decomposition. The statistical evidence, using data of four main research fields in quantum technologies, suggests the following empirical properties: a) the growth of heterogeneity in research topics is inversely proportional to the age of research fields: recent research fields have a higher variability between topics with uncertainty in evolutionary dynamics, whereas older research fields have a lower variability and more concentration in specific research topics with stable evolution towards clear directions; b) the nature of research fields has a systematic effects in variability guiding the evolution of technologies. The theoretical approach and findings clarify main characteristics and causes of the evolution of science and technologies considering the underlying homogeneity or heterogeneity in research topics, providing main implications to improve the scientific and technological forecasting that may support appropriate R&D investments towards promising research fields and technologies
Keywords
Quantum technology; Research fields; Science dynamics; Research topics; Entropy; Variance decomposition; Technological evolution; Variation; Generalized Darwinism; Technological change
Subject
Social Sciences, Other
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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