Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Projection of Environmental Impact of a Low Emission Zone Planned in Warsaw, Poland

Version 1 : Received: 16 October 2023 / Approved: 16 October 2023 / Online: 17 October 2023 (12:14:19 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Holnicki, P.; Kałuszko, A.; Nahorski, Z. A Projection of Environmental Impact of a Low Emission Zone Planned in Warsaw, Poland. Sustainability 2023, 15, 16260. Holnicki, P.; Kałuszko, A.; Nahorski, Z. A Projection of Environmental Impact of a Low Emission Zone Planned in Warsaw, Poland. Sustainability 2023, 15, 16260.

Abstract

Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is an important mechanism to limit the negative environmental impact of traffic pollution in an urban area. Car traffic in the zone is strictly regulated to meet certain technical and environmental criteria. Such solutions of urban environment protection are gaining popularity, especially in European conurbations. Nowadays there are above 300 zones in Europe, mostly established in Italy and Germany. So far there are no LEZs in Eastern and Central European countries. However, the Warsaw authorities are just discussing launching of a LEZ in the city in 2024. According to the ongoing project, the zone is to be launched gradually, in five phases between 2024 and 2032, with the traffic criteria being tightened accordingly. The progressive emission reductions of the predominant pollutants in LEZ in consecutive phases were estimated on the basis of the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) test, carried out in 2020 by the ICCT. The gradually reduced emissions of NOx and PM were subsequently utilized as the input dataset for the regional CALPUFF model predictions, to calculate concentrations of these main traffic-induced pollutants within the LEZ area. The direct effect of the zone activation is reduction of air pollution in the urban center, which is mostly exposed to the pollution risk due to heavy traffic. Computer simulations reveal that implementation of the zone in the case of Warsaw will result in a quite significant reduction of NOx concentrations within the LEZ, such that its mean concentration in the zone becomes comparable to the rest of the conurbation. However, it will bring only a slight reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. This situation is due to the long-standing dominance of coal combustion in the Polish economy, which also applies to the urban municipal sector. As a consequence, particulate matter emissions of this sector are clearly predominant over the road traffic contribution. Balance can be achieved once the ongoing de-carbonization of the national economy has been completed.

Keywords

Urban air pollution; Road traffic emission; RDE emission test; Low emission zone; Environmental impact

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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