preprints.org > engineering > other > doi: 10.20944/preprints202309.1038.v1

Preprint Concept Paper Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 13 September 2023 / Approved: 14 September 2023 / Online: 15 September 2023 (04:41:26 CEST)

ABSTRACT In the quest for decarbonisation, it's essential for different sectors of the economy to collaborate and invest significantly. This study presents an innovative approach that merges technological insight with philosophical considerations at a national scale, with the intention of shaping national policy and practice. The aim of this research is to assist in formulating decarbonisation strategies for intricate economies. Libya, a major oil exporter aiming to diversify its energy revenue sources, is used as the case study, although the principles can be applied to create decarbonisation strategies across the globe. The decarbonisation framework evaluated in this study encompasses wind based renewable electricity, hydrogen, and gas turbine combined cycles. A comprehensive set of both official and unofficial national data was assembled, integrated and analysed to conduct this study. The developed analytical model considers a variety of factors including consumption in different sectors, geographical data, weather patterns, wind potential, and consumption trends, amongst others. Even when gaps and inconsistencies were encountered, reasonable assumptions and projections were used to fill these. This model is seen as a valuable foundation for developing replacement scenarios that can realistically guide production and user engagement towards decarbonisation. The aim of this model is to maintain the advantages of the current energy consumption, assuming a 2% growth rate, and to assess changes in energy consumption in a fully green economy. While some level of speculation is present in the results, important qualitative and quantitative insights emerge, with the key takeaway being the use of hydrogen and the anticipated considerable increase in electricity demand. Two scenarios were evaluated: achieving energy self-sufficiency and replacing current oil exports with hydrogen exports on an energy content basis. This study offers, for the first time, a quantitative perspective on the wind-based infrastructure needs resulting from the evaluation of the two scenarios. In the first scenario, energy requirements were based on replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources. In contrast, the second scenario included maintaining energy exports at levels like the past, substituting oil with hydrogen. The findings clearly demonstrate that this transition will demand vast changes and substantial investments. The primary requirements identified are 14876 or 24532 square kilometres (for self-sufficiency and exports), and 47 single-shaft 600 MW combined-cycle gas turbines. This foundational analysis could represent the commencement of the research, investment, and political agenda on the journey to decarbonisation.

Gas Turbine

Engineering, Other

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