3. Data Analysis And Research Findings
P-P and Q-Q graphs were taken into consideration rather than the normality test when deciding whether the data was normally distributed or not. It has been found that the credit decision variable was observed approximately normal distribution.
3.1. Normality Analysis
There are many methods to measure the normality of a variable. The most used ones are given below.
Shapiro-Wilk Test:
Null Hypothesis: The data follows a normal distribution.
The test statistic W is calculated based on the ordered sample values and their corresponding expected values under normality.
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test:
Null Hypothesis: The data follows a specific distribution (e.g., normal distribution).
The test statistic D s calculated based on the maximum absolute difference between the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) of the observed data and the expected CDF under the hypothesized distribution (Shapiro et al., 1968).
P-P (Probability-Probability) and Q-Q (Quantile-Quantile) graphs:
P-P and Q-Q plots are utilized to assess the fit of a dataset to a normal distribution. The PP plot compares observed cumulative probabilities with expected probabilities under a normal distribution, while the Q-Q plot compares observed quantities with expected probabilities under a normal distribution. Ideally, the plotted points should align on a straight line, indicating normal distribution. Deviations from the straight line indicate departures from normality. These plots aid in identifying significant deviations from normality in the data. This study employed P-P and Q-Q methods and
Figure 3 presents the corresponding plots for the dependent variable.
In
Figure 3, it has been found that the credit decision was observed approximately normal distribution.
The following steps were followed in the analyzes made.
Correlation Analysis: the formula for Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) between two variables X and Y is given by:
where
and
represent the means of variables X and Y, respectively.
Multiple Regression Analysis: the formula for multiple linear regression is represented as follows:
where Y is the dependent variable,
are the independent variables,
are the regression coefficients, and
is the error term.
R-squared (Coefficient of Determination): the formula for R-squared (R²) in multiple regression analysis is calculated as:
where Y represents the observed values of the dependent variable,
epresents the predicted values from the regression model, and
represents the mean of the dependent variable.
3.2. Financial Item Analysis
Some financial items belonging to 530 companies operating in the service sector, which are thought to affect the dependent variable, have been determined by taking into consideration the studies and expert opinion and were used in the financial item analysis.
Correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between financial item variables. Thus, the problem of linear connection between independent variables is prevented. There are 13 independent variables in financial items. As a result of this review; due to the strong relationship between them, one of the variables with ± 0.80 and above correlation was included in the analysis and it was deemed appropriate to exclude the other from the data set. In this direction; significant and high relationship between Assets and Current Assets; significant and high relationship between Assets and Long-Term Liabilities; important and high relationship between Current Assets and Current Liabilities was found (orderly P. Correlation = 0.842, p = 0.000; P. Correlation = 0.811, p = 0.000; P. Correlation = 0.863, p = 0.000). Thus, it was decided to exclude 2 variables from the data set and continued to work with 11 variables for financial item data. Variables extracted from the data set; Current Assets and Long-Term Liabilities.
Regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between credit decision and financial item variables. As a result of the multiple linear regression analysis using the Stepwise Method, the eighth model was found significant. The relation coefficient of the regression model, the dependent variable explanation amount of the independent variables and the adjusted R2 values are examined. According to these results, the rate of Assets, Liquid Assets, Inventories, Current Liabilities, Equity, Net Working Capital, Net Sales, Previous Net Sales, Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales, Net Profit, Total Liabilities variables to explain the Credit Decision variable has found 54 percent. In addition, there is a significant difference between Assets, Current Liabilities, Equity, Net Sales, Previous Net Sales, Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales, Net Profit, Total Liabilities variables and dependent variable (P < 0.05). No significant difference has found between Liquid Assets, Inventories, Net Working Capital and the Credit Decision (P> 0.05).
According to the results of the regression analysis, it has been seen that there is a significant relationship between Credit Decision and Financial Item variables. The obtained model has been found to be statistically significant (F = 75,143 p = 0.000, p <0.05). Also, there has been no correlation in the model (Durbin-Watson = 0.996). According to these results, the model has been found to be statistically valid.
3.3. Financial Ratio Analysis
The data of variables related to financial ratios of 530 companies operating in the service sector were analyzed. Financial ratio variables that are thought to affect the dependent variable are used in the financial ratio analysis.
Correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the financial ratio variables. Thus, the problem of linear connection between independent variables is prevented. There are 12 independent variables in financial ratio variables. As a result of this analysis; due to the strong relationship between them, it was deemed appropriate to hold one of the variables with a correlation of ± 0.80 and above and remove the other from the data set. In this direction; there was a significant and high relationship between Net Profit / Assets and Current Liabilities / Net Profit and a significant and high relationship between Net Profit / Assets and Equity / Net Profit (orderly P. Correlation = 0.856, p = 0.000; P. Correlation = 0.872, p = 0.000). Thus, it was decided to remove 1 variable from the data set and continued to work with 11 variables for the financial ratio data. The variable extracted from the data set was the Net Profit / Assets ratio, which was lower in relation to the dependent variable.
Regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between credit decision and financial ratio variables. As a result of the multiple linear regression analysis using the Stepwise method, the fifth model was found significant. The relation coefficient of the regression model, the dependent variable explanation amount of the independent variables and the adjusted R2 values are examined. According to these results, the rate of Net Sales / Assets, Current Liabilities / Net Profit, Long Term Liabilities / Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales, Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit, Net Working Capital / Equity, Equity / Net Sales, Equity / Net Profit, Current Assets / Assets, Net Profit / Net Sales, Total Debt / Net Sales, Total Debt / Net Profit variables to explain the Credit Decision variable has found 21 percent. In addition, there has been a significant difference between Current Liabilities / Net Profit, Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit, Current Assets / Assets, Total Debt / Net Sales, Total Debt / Net Profit variables and Credit Decision variables (P <0. 05). A significant difference between Net Sales / Assets, Long-Term Liabilities / Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales, Net Working Capital / Equity, Equity / Net Sales, Equity / Net Profit, Net Profit / Net Sales and Credit Decision variables has not been found (P> 0.05).
Table 3.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for Financial Ratios.
Table 3.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for Financial Ratios.
| 5. Model F |
Independent Var. |
Dependent Variables |
β |
t |
p |
R2
|
F = 28,510 p = ,000
|
Credit Decision
|
Constant |
925721 |
4,245 |
,000 |
,214 |
| Current Liabilities / Net Profit |
-197123 |
10,023 |
,000 |
| Total Debt / Net Profit |
-80574 |
-5,919 |
,000 |
| Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit |
-62880 |
2,951 |
,000 |
| Current Assets / Assets |
810149 |
-2,464 |
,014 |
| Net Sales / Assets |
127067 |
2,118 |
,035 |
According to the results of the regression analysis, it has been seen that there is a significant relationship between Credit Decision and Financial Ratio variables. The obtained model has been found to be statistically significant (F = 28,510 p = 0.000, p <0.05). Also, there has been no correlation in the model (Durbin-Watson = 0.447). According to these results, the model has been found to be statistically valid.
3.4. Non-Financial Analysis
The data of the variables related to non-financial belonging to 530 companies operating in the service sector were analyzed. The non-financial variables that are thought to affect the dependent variable were used in the non-financial analysis.
Correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between non-financial variables. Thus, the problem of linear connection between independent variables is prevented. There are 9 independent variables in non-financial variables. As a result of this review; due to the strong relationship between them, it was considered appropriate to include one of the variables with ± 0.80 and above correlation with each other and exclude the other from the data set. Accordingly, a significant and high relationship was found between Cash Limit in Risk Center and Cash Risk in Risk Center (P. Correlation = 0.873, p = 0.01). Thus, it was decided to exclude 1 variable from the data set and continued to work with 8 variables for non-financial data. The variable extracted from the data set is Cash Risk in Risk Center.
Regression analysis has been used to determine the relationships between dependent variables and independent variables. Regression analysis was carried out to determine the relationship between the decision of credit and non-financial variables, excluding the variable derived in the correlation analysis. As a result of multiple linear regression analysis using Stepwise method, sixth model has been found significant. The correlation coefficient of the regression model, the dependent variable explanation amount of the independent variables and the adjusted R2 values are examined. According to these results, the rate of Deposit Average in Banks Last 1-Year, Cash Limit in Risk Center, Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center, Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount, Current Class B Cash Collateral Amount, Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount, Weighted KKB score and Current Signature Collateral Limit variables to explain the Credit Decision variable has found 71 percent. In addition, there has been a significant difference between Cash Limit in Risk Center, Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center, Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount, Current Class B Cash Collateral Amount, Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount, Current Signature Collateral Limit variables and the Credit Decision variable (P <0.05). There has not been significant difference between Deposit Average in Banks Last 1-Year, Weighted KKB and Credit Decision (P> 0.05).
Table 4.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for Non-Financial Data.
Table 4.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for Non-Financial Data.
| 5. Model F |
Independent Var. |
Dependent Variables |
β |
t |
p |
R2
|
F = 217,73 p = ,000
|
Credit Decision
|
Constant |
570182 |
5,937 |
,000 |
,714 |
| Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount |
,974 |
28,23 |
,000 |
| Cash Limit in Risk Center |
,061 |
7,076 |
,000 |
| Weighted KKB Score |
1,650 |
4,370 |
,000 |
| Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount |
-1,313 |
-3,696 |
,000 |
| Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center |
-36496 |
-2,880 |
,004 |
| Current Class B Cash Collateral Amount |
,278 |
2,296 |
,022 |
According to the results of the regression analysis, it has been seen that there is a significant relationship between Credit Decision and Non-Financial variables. The obtained model has been found to be statistically significant (F = 217,73 p = 0.000, p <0.05). Also, there has been no correlation in the model (Durbin Watson = 1.442). According to these results, the model has been found to be statistically valid.
3.5. All Variable Groups Analysis
As a result of the regression analysis performed before, the data of the variables related to financial item, financial rate and non-financial data of 530 companies operating in the service sector were analyzed separately. Considering the previous regression analysis under this heading, multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to analyze the effect of financial item, financial ratio and non-financial variables together on credit decision. These variables are shown in Figure 4.
Table 5.
All Significant Variables.
Table 5.
All Significant Variables.
| ALL SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES |
| FINANCIAL ITEMS |
FINANCIAL RATIOS |
NON-FİNANCİAL VARIABLES |
| Assets |
Net Sales / Assets |
Deposit Average in Banks Last 1-Year |
| Liquid Assets |
Current Liabilities / Net Profit |
Cash Limit in Risk Center |
| Inventories |
Long Term Liabilities / Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales |
Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center |
| Current Liabilities |
Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit |
Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount |
| Equity |
Net Working Capital / Equity |
Current Class B Cash Collateral Amount |
| Net Working Capital |
Equity / Net Sales |
Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount |
| Net Sales |
Equity / Net Profit |
Weighted KKB Score |
| Previous Net Sales |
Current Assets / Assets |
Current Signature Collateral Limit |
| Absolute Value of Net Sales-Previous Net Sales |
Net Profit / Net Sales |
|
| Net Profit |
Total Debt / Net Sales |
|
| Total Liabilities |
Total Debt / Net Profit |
|
As a result of the previous analyzes, the variables that has been found and removed were determined as among Financial Item Variables; Current Assets, Long Term Liabilities, among Financial Ratio Variables; Net Profit / Assets, among Non-Financial Variables; Cash Risk in Risk Center.
Correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship of independent variables with each other. As a result of the correlation analysis, it was decided to subtract the Weighted KKB Score variable from the non-financial variables and Equity variable from the Financial Item Variables.
Regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between credit decision and all variables. As a result of the multiple linear regression analysis using the Stepwise method, the eighth model was found significant. The relation coefficient of the regression model, the dependent variable explanation amount of the independent variables and the corrected R2 values are given. According to these results, the amount of Financial Item, Financial Ratio and Non-Financial Data variables explaining the Credit Decision variable has found to be 81 percent. According to the results of the analysis, there has been a significant difference between Assets, Equity, Net Sales, Previous Net Sales, Net Profit, Total Liabilities from Financial Items; Net Sales / Assets, Current Liabilities / Net Profit, Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit, Net Profit / Net Sales, Total Debt / Net Sales, Total Debt / Net Profit from Financial Ratios; Cash Limit in Risk Center, Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center, Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount, Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount, Weighted KKB Score, Current Signature Collateral Limit from Non-Financial variables and the Credit Decision variable (P <0.05).
Table 6.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for All Variables.
Table 6.
Coefficients and R2 of Regression Model for All Variables.
| 8. Model F |
Independent Variable |
Dependent Variables |
β |
t |
p |
R2
|
F = 132,641 p=,000
|
Credit Decision
|
Constant |
245785 |
2,322 |
,021 |
,805 |
| Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount |
,682 |
18,025 |
,000 |
| Total Liabilities |
,152 |
8,596 |
,000 |
| Current Liabilities / Net Profit |
85375 |
7,533 |
,000 |
| Total Debt / Net Profit |
-50288 |
-5,732 |
,000 |
| Net Profit |
,280 |
4,963 |
,000 |
| Net Profit / Net Sales |
-165810 |
-3,097 |
,002 |
| Current Signature Collateral Limit |
1,289 |
4,081 |
,000 |
| Previous Net Sales |
-,019 |
-1,676 |
,004 |
| Net Sales |
,026 |
2,275 |
,023 |
| Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center |
-49598 |
-4,540 |
,000 |
| Cash Limit in Risk Center |
,044 |
4,396 |
,000 |
| Assets |
,060 |
-4,867 |
,000 |
| Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit |
38906 |
3,274 |
,001 |
| Net Sales / Assets |
106938 |
3,718 |
,000 |
| Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount |
-,886 |
-2,992 |
,003 |
| Total Debt / Net Sales |
-99727 |
-2,314 |
,021 |
According to the results of the regression analysis, it has been seen that there is a significant relationship between Credit Decision and Financial Items, Financial Ratios, Non-Financial variables. The obtained model has been found to be statistically significant (F = 132.641 p = .000, p <0.05). Also, there has been no correlation in the model (D.W. = 1.710). According to these results, the model has been found to be statistically valid. An increase in one unit in Current Class A Cash Collateral Amount, Total Liabilities, Current Liabilities / Net Profit, Net Profit, Net Profit / Net Sales, Current Signature Collateral Limit, Net Sales, Cash Limit in Risk Center, Assets, Long Term Liabilities / Net Profit and Net Sales / Assets causes an increase in Credit Decision of 0.682, 0.152, 85375, 0.280, 165810, 1.289, 0,026, 0,044, 0,060, 38906 and 106938, respectively. An increase in one unit in Total Debt / Net Profit, Previous Net Sales, Number of Banks with Limits in Risk Center, Current Class C Cash Collateral Amount and Total Debt / Net Sales causes a decrease in Credit Decision of 50288, 0.019, 49598, 0.886 and 99727, respectively.