Version 1
: Received: 9 May 2023 / Approved: 12 May 2023 / Online: 12 May 2023 (05:11:38 CEST)
How to cite:
Rowe, B.R.; Mitchell, J.B.A.; Canosa, A.; Draxler, R. Triggering of an Epidemic Outbreak by Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Bio-Aerosols. Application to a Hypothetical Case for COVID-19. Preprints.org2023, 2023050888. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0888.v1
Rowe, B.R.; Mitchell, J.B.A.; Canosa, A.; Draxler, R. Triggering of an Epidemic Outbreak by Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Bio-Aerosols. Application to a Hypothetical Case for COVID-19. Preprints.org 2023, 2023050888. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0888.v1
Cite as:
Rowe, B.R.; Mitchell, J.B.A.; Canosa, A.; Draxler, R. Triggering of an Epidemic Outbreak by Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Bio-Aerosols. Application to a Hypothetical Case for COVID-19. Preprints.org2023, 2023050888. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0888.v1
Rowe, B.R.; Mitchell, J.B.A.; Canosa, A.; Draxler, R. Triggering of an Epidemic Outbreak by Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Bio-Aerosols. Application to a Hypothetical Case for COVID-19. Preprints.org 2023, 2023050888. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0888.v1
Abstract
In the present work, we investigate the possibility that long-range airborne transport of infectious aerosols could initiate an epidemic outbreak at distances downwind beyond one hundred kilometers. For this, we have developed a simple atmospheric transport box-model which, for a hypothetical case of a COVID-19 outbreak, was compared to a more sophisticated 3-dimensional transport-dispersion model (HYSPLIT) calculation. Coupled with an extended Wells-Riley description of infection airborne spread, it shows that, the very low probability of outdoor transmission can be compensated by high numbers and densities, such as occurs in large cities, of infected and susceptible people in the source upwind and in the target downwind respectively. This may result in the creation of a few primary cases. It is worth pointing out that the probability of being infected remains very small at the individual level. Therefore, this process alone, which depends on population sizes, geography, seasonality and meteorology, can only “trigger” an epidemic which could then spread by the standard infection routes
Public Health and Healthcare, Public, Environmental and Occupational Health
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
