preprints.org > social sciences > geography, planning and development > doi: 10.20944/preprints202304.0864.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 24 April 2023 / Approved: 25 April 2023 / Online: 25 April 2023 (02:31:38 CEST)

Identifying productive, profitable and less risky cropping systems is important for sustaining farm-based livelihoods in the context of climatic uncertainties and market volatility in many developing nations. Reductionist field crop research identifies the best-bet solutions based on treatment replicates at a single point in time, which may not account for price instability under climatic uncertainties and volatile markets. Keeping this in mind, we estimated productivity, profitability and weather-related risk from eleven different rice-based cropping systems (eight existing and three potential systems) in the coastal region of West Bengal, India. Information on the crop management practices, yield and prices of the component crops of these eleven cropping systems, under ’best,’ ’normal’ and ‘worst’ situations (scenario), were collected through a ques-tionnaire survey on50 farms of Gosaba Block, West Bengal, India. Irrespective of the scenarios, the rice-lathyrus systems, followed by rice-onion and rice-lentil systems recorded the lowest rice-equivalent yields and system yields. However, the highest rice-equivalent yields and system yields were recorded for rice-chilli systems, followed by rice-tomato and rice-potato-green gram systems. Per hectare total paid-out cost (TPC) of rice-tomato systems was higher, followed by rice-chilli, rice-potato-green gram and rice-potato systems. However, irrespective of seasonal conditions (best, normal and worst), rice-chilli systems gave a higher net return followed by rice-tomato and rice-potato-green gram systems. The rice-fallow system recorded the lowest value for both parameters. Under the worst seasonal conditions, the rice-onion system gave a negative net return. Under all the scenarios, the highest B:C ratio was observed for rice-chilli, rice-tomato, rice-potato-green gram and rice-potato systems. The cumulative probability distribution of the rice-tomato system showed first-degree stochastic dominance over other systems and the rice-chilli system showed second-degree stochastic dominance over the rest of the systems. Only the rice-onion system had a small chance (< 1%) of a negative net return, while the rest of the cropping systems were highly likely to get a positive net return. Taking productivity, economics, and risk assessment of different rice-based systems into account, rice-vegetable systems, especially rice-tomato and rice-chilli among the existing systems and rice-potato-green gram system among the potential systems, can be recommended for sustainable intensification in these coastal saline tracts of the region. We also discuss additional socio-economic factors explored by in-depth in-terviews with the farmers, which might influence the adoption and upscaling of these cropping systems in the region.

sustainable intensification; rice-based cropping systems; risk analysis; stochastic dominance; economic sustainability

Social Sciences, Geography, Planning and Development

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