preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > environmental science > doi: 10.20944/preprints202303.0526.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 29 March 2023 / Approved: 30 March 2023 / Online: 30 March 2023 (10:38:58 CEST)

Land use land cover change analysis is one of the most particular techniques to understand how land was used in the past, what types of changes are to be expected in the future, as well as the forces and processes behind the changes. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate the land use land cover changes and its driving forces in Mago National Park, southern Ethiopia. Satellite image of Landsat5 TM (1988, 1998 and 2008) and Landsat8 OLI/TIRS (2018) with a time span of 30 years were employed. In addition, field observation, and social survey were conducted to study the drivers of land use land cover changes. QGIS 3.2 and SPSS (for social data analysis) software’s’ were used for satellite image processing, accuracy assessment, map preparation and descriptively analyze the driving forces of LULCC respectively. Supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm was conducted for satellite image analysis and generation of information using Quantum GIS 3.2 Post classification change detection method was applied to quantify the land use/land cover change. The result of the study indicated riverine forest, woodland, grassland, water body, degraded land and bare land as a major land use land cover class in the park. The result of land use land cover classification showed that in 1988 most of the study area was covered by woodland and grass land. In the first period (1988-1998), woodland, riverine forest, water body and bare land decreased by 6.76%, 37.98%, 22.37% and 70.14% respectively, while grass land, and degraded land increased by 16.11% and 85.67% respectively. In the second period, (1998 -2008), woodland, riverine forest and degraded land were decreased by 5.44%, 4.61%, and 80.74% respectively, while grass land, water body and bare land is increased by 14.74%, 3.76% and 52.58% respectively. From 2008-2018 riverine forest, grassland, water body and bare land decreased by 1.33%, 15.16% and 4.82% and 25.02% respectively, while woodland increased by 11.84%, and degraded land increased by 85.49% respectively. Riverine forest, water body, grass land and bare land showed decrement and that of woodland, degraded land indicated increment during study period. From 1988-2018, woodland, riverine forest, water body and bare land indicated decrement and the remaining grass land and bare land cover types indicated increment during study period. The result of social survey indicated that expansion of agriculture, human induced fire, overgrazing and hunting are proximate driving forces of the change in Mago National Park. Population pressure from a different area, poverty, decreased farmlands productivity; education, weak law enforcement and cultural factors are the major underlying causes of the observed changes. Therefore, proper land use planning, legal support, and strong law enforcement are the key recommendations to sustain natural resources of the study area.

Social survey; Mago National Park; Landsat; GIS; Remote sensing; land use land cover

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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