Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Nature-Based Solutions Are Critical for Putting Brazil on Track Towards Net Zero

Aline Soterroni
* ,
Mariana Império
,
Marluce Scarabello
,
Nathalie Seddon
,
Michael Obersteiner
,
Pedro Rochedo
,
Roberto Schaeffer
,
Pedro Andrade
ORCID logo ,
Fernando Ramos
,
Tasso Azevedo
,
Jean Ometto
ORCID logo ,
Petr Havlik
,
Ane Alencar
ORCID logo
Version 1 : Received: 1 November 2022 / Approved: 2 November 2022 / Online: 2 November 2022 (10:55:25 CET)

How to cite: Soterroni, A.; Império, M.; Scarabello, M.; Seddon, N.; Obersteiner, M.; Rochedo, P.; Schaeffer, R.; Andrade, P.; Ramos, F.; Azevedo, T.; Ometto, J.; Havlik, P.; Alencar, A. Nature-Based Solutions Are Critical for Putting Brazil on Track Towards Net Zero. Preprints 2022, 2022110054. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202211.0054.v1 Soterroni, A.; Império, M.; Scarabello, M.; Seddon, N.; Obersteiner, M.; Rochedo, P.; Schaeffer, R.; Andrade, P.; Ramos, F.; Azevedo, T.; Ometto, J.; Havlik, P.; Alencar, A. Nature-Based Solutions Are Critical for Putting Brazil on Track Towards Net Zero. Preprints 2022, 2022110054. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202211.0054.v1

Abstract

Over 130 countries have committed to reaching net-zero CO2 or GHG emissions by 2050, yet this ambition is rarely underpinned by robust policies. By applying a detailed integrated assessment modelling approach for Brazil, we assess, for the first time, the extent to which the existing and planned local policies could put Brazil on the path to its net zero pledge. This includes quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as protection and restoration, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We show protection is the single most important climate mitigation measure at relatively low costs, whereas relying heavily on engineered solutions would jeopardise Brazil’s chances of achieving its net zero pledge. We also show that the mismatch between Brazil's short- and long-term climate targets reflects current weak environmental governance. Our analysis reinforces the urgent need for Brazil to eliminate illegal deforestation and go beyond to help fight climate change whilst curbing biodiversity loss.

Keywords

Brazil's climate pledges; net-zero emissions; nature-based solutions; mitigation potentials; integrated assessment modelling

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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