Brodehl, S.; Müller, R.; Schömer, E.; Spichtinger, P.; Wand, M. End-to-End Prediction of Lightning Events from Geostationary Satellite Images. Remote Sens.2022, 14, 3760.
Brodehl, S.; Müller, R.; Schömer, E.; Spichtinger, P.; Wand, M. End-to-End Prediction of Lightning Events from Geostationary Satellite Images. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 3760.
Brodehl, S.; Müller, R.; Schömer, E.; Spichtinger, P.; Wand, M. End-to-End Prediction of Lightning Events from Geostationary Satellite Images. Remote Sens.2022, 14, 3760.
Brodehl, S.; Müller, R.; Schömer, E.; Spichtinger, P.; Wand, M. End-to-End Prediction of Lightning Events from Geostationary Satellite Images. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 3760.
Abstract
While thunderstorms can pose severe risks to property and life, forecasting remains challenging, even at short lead times, as these often arise in meta-stable atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we examine the question of how well we could perform short-term (up to 180min) forecasts using exclusively multi-spectral satellite images and past lighting events as data. We employ representation learning based on deep convolutional neural networks in an “end-to-end” fashion. Here, a crucial problem is handling the imbalance of the positive and negative classes appropriately in order to be able to obtain predictive results (which is not addressed by many previous machine-learning-based approaches). The resulting network outperforms previous methods based on physically-based features and optical flow methods (similar to operational prediction models) and generalizes across different years. A closer examination of the classifier performance over time and under masking of input data indicates that the learned model actually draws most information from structures in the visible spectrum, with infrared imaging sustaining some classification performance during the night.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
