Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Transportation and Air Quality. Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country. The Case of Greece

Version 1 : Received: 20 December 2021 / Approved: 21 December 2021 / Online: 21 December 2021 (12:26:52 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Spyropoulos, G.C.; Nastos, P.T.; Moustris, K.P.; Chalvatzis, K.J. Transportation and Air Quality Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country, the Case of Greece. Land 2022, 11, 152. Spyropoulos, G.C.; Nastos, P.T.; Moustris, K.P.; Chalvatzis, K.J. Transportation and Air Quality Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country, the Case of Greece. Land 2022, 11, 152.

Journal reference: Land 2022, 11, 152
DOI: 10.3390/land11020152

Abstract

This study provides a thorough review and analysis of the evolution of the Greek vehicle fleet over the last ~30 years, which is next used for the generation of high granularity fleet projections and for the estimation of relevant environmental benefits by 2030. The integrated methodology developed takes also into account vehicle clustering and the Brown’s Double Simple Exponential Smoothing technique that together with the adoption of COPERT based emission factors allow for the estimation of the anticipated emissions in 2030. Expected 2030 emissions levels suggest a reduction across all pollutants in comparison to 2018, ranging from 3.7% for PM10 to 54.5% for NMVOC (and 46% for CO, 14% for SO2, 28% for NOX and 21% for CO2). We find that Greece is on track with national goals concerning the reduction of air pollution from the transportation sector, stressing the positive contribution of EVs and new, "greener" vehicles, and setting new challenges for the further improvement of the sector beyond the 2030 outlook.

Keywords

air pollution; transportation policy; vehicle fleet projections; electric vehicles; exponential smoothing; Greece

Subject

EARTH SCIENCES, Environmental Sciences

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