Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

An Analysis of COVID-19 in Europe Based on Fractal Dimension and Meteorological Data

Version 1 : Received: 23 September 2021 / Approved: 24 September 2021 / Online: 24 September 2021 (11:19:52 CEST)

How to cite: Pacurar, C.M.; Păcurar, V.D.; Paun, M. An Analysis of COVID-19 in Europe Based on Fractal Dimension and Meteorological Data. Preprints 2021, 2021090425 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202109.0425.v1). Pacurar, C.M.; Păcurar, V.D.; Paun, M. An Analysis of COVID-19 in Europe Based on Fractal Dimension and Meteorological Data. Preprints 2021, 2021090425 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202109.0425.v1).

Abstract

The present paper proposes a fractal analysis of the Covid-19 dynamics in 45 European countries. We introduce a new idea of using the box-counting dimension of the epidemiologic curves as a means of classifying the Covid-19 pandemic in the countries taken into consideration. The classification can be a useful tool in deciding upon the quality and accuracy of the data available. We also investigated the reproduction rate, which proves to have significant fractal features, thus enabling another perspective on this epidemic characteristic. Moreover, we studied the correlation between two meteorological parameters: global radiation and daily mean temperature and two Covid-19 indicators: daily new cases and reproduction rate. The fractal dimension differences between the analysed time series graphs could represent a preliminary analysis criterion, increasing research efficiency. Daily global radiation was found to be stronger linked with Covid-19 new cases than air temperature (with a greater correlation coefficient -0.386, as compared with -0.318), and consequently it is recommended as the first-choice meteorological variable for prediction models.

Keywords

Covid-19; fractal analysis; epidemic curves; box-counting dimension; reproduction rate; global radiation; daily mean temperature

Subject

MATHEMATICS & COMPUTER SCIENCE, Other

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