Version 1
: Received: 29 June 2021 / Approved: 1 July 2021 / Online: 1 July 2021 (10:33:42 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 1 July 2021 / Approved: 2 July 2021 / Online: 2 July 2021 (10:26:06 CEST)
Version 3
: Received: 23 August 2022 / Approved: 24 August 2022 / Online: 24 August 2022 (03:49:41 CEST)
How to cite:
Schaffernicht, M.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.; Castillo, R. Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v1
Schaffernicht, M.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.; Castillo, R. Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints 2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v1
Schaffernicht, M.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.; Castillo, R. Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v1
APA Style
Schaffernicht, M., López-Astorga, M., Rojas-Barahona, C., & Castillo, R. (2021). Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Schaffernicht, M., Cristian Rojas-Barahona and Ramón Castillo. 2021 "Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v1
Abstract
This article contributes to research on mental models and how they underpin decision policies. It proposes a framework for the joint use of mental models of dynamic systems and the theory of mental models initiated by Johnson–Laird and defines two types of errors: (1) misrepresentation of the system’s structure, and (2) failure to deploy relevant mental models of possibilities. We use a dynamic decision task based on Moxnes’ “reindeer experiment” to formulate three intuitive policies, their underlying mental models, and the reasoning, and evaluate the policies under varying initial conditions. Each of the policies generates problematic behaviors like dependance on initial conditions, underperformance because of flawed goal setting and oscillation due to leaving the delay in a feedback loop out of account. We identify errors of both types in the mental models and relate them to the behavioral problems. Limitations and questions for further research conclude the paper.
Keywords
Mental Models; Dynamic Decision Making; Systems Thinking; Learning;
Subject
Business, Economics and Management, Accounting and Taxation
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
