Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Spatial and Temporal Spread of the Coronavirus Pandemic using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach

Version 1 : Received: 24 June 2021 / Approved: 25 June 2021 / Online: 25 June 2021 (15:55:53 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Melin, P.; Castillo, O. Spatial and Temporal Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8295. Melin, P.; Castillo, O. Spatial and Temporal Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8295.

Journal reference: Sustainability 2021, 13, 8295
DOI: 10.3390/su13158295

Abstract

In this article, the evolution in space and in time of the coronavirus pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability for clustering countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics with respect to their coronavirus cases. In this form enabling finding the countries that are having similar behavior and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. To validate the approach, publicly available datasets of coronavirus cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of time series of the countries. Then, a hybrid combination of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient COVID-19 forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study, that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. A lot of the existing works concerned with the Coronavirus have look at the problem mostly from the temporal viewpoint that is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant to improve the forecasting ability. The most relevant contribution of this article is the proposal of combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series and help in planning control actions for the Coronavirus pandemic.

Keywords

Coronavirus; Spatial Similarity; Fractal Theory; Neural Networks; Fuzzy Logic.

Subject

MATHEMATICS & COMPUTER SCIENCE, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics

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