Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann

doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0178.v2

Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 6 February 2021 / Approved: 8 February 2021 / Online: 8 February 2021 (10:33:43 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 15 March 2021 / Approved: 16 March 2021 / Online: 16 March 2021 (10:15:53 CET)

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

non-pharmaceutical intervention; epidemic model; compliance; reproduction number; COVID-19

Computer Science and Mathematics, Algebra and Number Theory

Comment 1

Received: 16 March 2021
Commenter: Jan Fuhrmann
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author

Comment: added an explanation for the possible rebound of the incidence after intervention (starting with eq. (A1), page 17) - we got multiple questions about this, so we thought it might be a good idea to explain this in the manuscript

corrected several typos

added a reference: [13] (Iboi et al, published very recently and not available when we submitted the first version)

changed the subject from Algebra & Number Theory to Applied Mathematics (hope this is ok)

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Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

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