Working Paper Communication Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries

Version 1 : Received: 13 January 2021 / Approved: 13 January 2021 / Online: 13 January 2021 (13:07:39 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 13 July 2021 / Approved: 28 July 2021 / Online: 28 July 2021 (10:30:09 CEST)

How to cite: Schlickeiser, R.; Kröger, M. Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries. Preprints 2021, 2021010252 Schlickeiser, R.; Kröger, M. Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries. Preprints 2021, 2021010252

Abstract

Based on hospital capacities, facts from past experience with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus and the number of dark infections during the second wave (DII = 2D2), a reasonable limiting value of 140/D2 for the 7-day incidence per 100,000 persons (MSDIHT) and a second wave herd immunization threshold fraction value of 0.26 in Germany were calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value, the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. On the basis of the SIRV epidemics model, the classical threshold values for herd immunization were calculated for 18 countries. For these countries, the dates regarding when herd immunization against the second COVID-19 wave will be reached were estimated

Keywords

coronavirus; extrapolation; 7-day incidence value; Covid-19

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 28 July 2021
Commenter: Martin Kröger
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Changed title, abstract, extended several sections, changed ordering of authors.
+ Respond to this comment

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 1
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.