Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Version 1 : Received: 23 December 2020 / Approved: 25 December 2020 / Online: 25 December 2020 (12:06:46 CET)

How to cite: Kamrujjaman, M.; Mahmud, M.S.; Ahmed, S.; Qayum, M.O.; Alam, M.M.; Hassan, M.N.; Islam, M.R.; Nipa, K.F.; Bulut, U. SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation. Preprints 2020, 2020120655 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0655.v1). Kamrujjaman, M.; Mahmud, M.S.; Ahmed, S.; Qayum, M.O.; Alam, M.M.; Hassan, M.N.; Islam, M.R.; Nipa, K.F.; Bulut, U. SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation. Preprints 2020, 2020120655 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0655.v1).

Abstract

{\bf Abstract.} \\ {\bf Background:} Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 burden among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak's pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. \noindent{\bf Methodology and Findings:} To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and good fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be good control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number ($ \mathcal{R}_{0} $) has been estimated to be 0.7563. \noindent{\bf Conclusion:} Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government as well as other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. Although detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Rohingya Refugee camp; Mathematical model; Numerical results; Basic reproduction number.

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