Version 1
: Received: 16 December 2020 / Approved: 17 December 2020 / Online: 17 December 2020 (11:23:32 CET)
Version 2
: Received: 27 December 2020 / Approved: 28 December 2020 / Online: 28 December 2020 (15:31:31 CET)
Version 3
: Received: 19 February 2021 / Approved: 23 February 2021 / Online: 23 February 2021 (15:26:35 CET)
Version 4
: Received: 21 April 2021 / Approved: 22 April 2021 / Online: 22 April 2021 (21:14:09 CEST)
Lesage, A.; Victor, J.-M. To
Be or to Have Been Lucky, That Is the
Question. Philosophies 2021, 6, 57.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
philosophies6030057
Lesage, A.; Victor, J.-M. To
Be or to Have Been Lucky, That Is the
Question. Philosophies 2021, 6, 57.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
philosophies6030057
Lesage, A.; Victor, J.-M. To
Be or to Have Been Lucky, That Is the
Question. Philosophies 2021, 6, 57.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
philosophies6030057
Lesage, A.; Victor, J.-M. To
Be or to Have Been Lucky, That Is the
Question. Philosophies 2021, 6, 57.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
philosophies6030057
Abstract
Is it possible to measure the dispersion of ex-ante chances (i.e. chances “before the event”) among people, be it gambling, health, or social opportunities? We explore this question and provide some tools, including a statistical test, to evidence the actual dispersion of ex-ante chances in various areas with a focus on chronic diseases. Using the principle of maximum entropy, we derive the distribution of the risk to become ill in the global population as well as in the population of affected people. We find that affected people are either at very low risk like the overwhelming majority of the population but still were unlucky to become ill, or are at extremely high risk and were bound to become ill.
Keywords
ex-ante chances; dispersion of chances; chronic diseases; gambling; statistical test; twin studies; principle of maximum entropy.
Subject
Public Health and Healthcare, Other
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
