Version 1
: Received: 23 October 2020 / Approved: 26 October 2020 / Online: 26 October 2020 (12:22:20 CET)
How to cite:
Arku, D.; Kallah-Dagadu, G. A Stochastic H-U Model for Malaria Transmission via Markov Theory. Preprints2020, 2020100522. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202010.0522.v1
Arku, D.; Kallah-Dagadu, G. A Stochastic H-U Model for Malaria Transmission via Markov Theory. Preprints 2020, 2020100522. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202010.0522.v1
Arku, D.; Kallah-Dagadu, G. A Stochastic H-U Model for Malaria Transmission via Markov Theory. Preprints2020, 2020100522. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202010.0522.v1
APA Style
Arku, D., & Kallah-Dagadu, G. (2020). A Stochastic H-U Model for Malaria Transmission via Markov Theory. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202010.0522.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Arku, D. and Gabriel Kallah-Dagadu. 2020 "A Stochastic H-U Model for Malaria Transmission via Markov Theory" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202010.0522.v1
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate the mean transitioning probabilities from a Healthy state to malaria positive uncomplicated state or to malaria positive severe state. It also classifies the various transitioning probabilities of moving through the various states based on some baseline characteristics. Malaria test results for 2019 over a 12-month period were collected from the University of Ghana school clinic. An H-U model for the study was developed and the transition rates from the cross-sectional data are indicated. With two states Healthy (H) and Uncomplicated (U) forming a state space, there were four possible transitions. The results show that the probability of transitioning from a Healthy state to a malaria positive state is 0.03% while the probability that an individual will remain at Healthy state (H) after the test is 99.73%. It was found that if an individual is already positive and has taken medication the probability that its second test came out negative is 6.45% while the chances that it will remain positive but uncomplicated is 93.55%. The study also showed that in the long run, about 95.98% of persons who visited the student clinic with malaria symptoms recorded negative tests for malaria parasite while about 4% recorded positive for malaria. In terms of disaggregation by gender, it was realized that the number of reported negative test results were higher for females (97.08%) than for males (96.13%). However, the infection rate is higher for males (3.87%) than females (2.92%). It is recommended that in as much as the University of Ghana has two health centers (a clinic and hospital), there should be a centralized system to track students’ health so research done would not be biased.
Computer Science and Mathematics, Algebra and Number Theory
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
