Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses

Version 1 : Received: 29 June 2020 / Approved: 30 June 2020 / Online: 30 June 2020 (13:10:27 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 3 July 2020 / Approved: 6 July 2020 / Online: 6 July 2020 (10:25:09 CEST)

How to cite: Chen, S.; Ren, Y. Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints 2020, 2020060373 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0373.v1). Chen, S.; Ren, Y. Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints 2020, 2020060373 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0373.v1).

Abstract

COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 15, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 25.90 ºC (25.00 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.97. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 7.72 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June 1-15, respectively. MDPM high-risk rates in countries with AT >25 ºC were 0, 6.25, 14.55, and 9.84%, and the low-risk rates were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 81.97%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; ambient temperature; risk level; mortality

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