Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Role of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence after the Lockdown

Version 1 : Received: 14 June 2020 / Approved: 16 June 2020 / Online: 16 June 2020 (07:42:04 CEST)

How to cite: Gammaitoni, L.; Neri, I. Role of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence after the Lockdown. Preprints 2020, 2020060197 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0197.v1). Gammaitoni, L.; Neri, I. Role of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence after the Lockdown. Preprints 2020, 2020060197 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0197.v1).

Abstract

Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours.

Subject Areas

Covid-19; fluctuations; noise; epidemics; lockdown; promiscuity

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