Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

ARIMA Forecasting of PM2.5 and PM10 Trends: Effects of Continuing Social Distancing on Air Quality in a Southeast Asian Urban Area

Version 1 : Received: 28 May 2020 / Approved: 31 May 2020 / Online: 31 May 2020 (15:32:49 CEST)

How to cite: Adwibowo, A. ARIMA Forecasting of PM2.5 and PM10 Trends: Effects of Continuing Social Distancing on Air Quality in a Southeast Asian Urban Area. Preprints 2020, 2020050473 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0473.v1). Adwibowo, A. ARIMA Forecasting of PM2.5 and PM10 Trends: Effects of Continuing Social Distancing on Air Quality in a Southeast Asian Urban Area. Preprints 2020, 2020050473 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0473.v1).

Abstract

It has been hypothesized that social distancing as the prevention measures for COVID 19 can affect the air quality including PM2.5 and PM10 in urban areas. According to this situation, this study aims to compare the PM2.5 and PM10 before and after the implementation of social distancing. Likewise, this study also forecasts the benefits of social distancing on PM2.5 and PM10 if social distancing period is continued and extended. To achieve these objectives, an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to investigate the daily PM2.5 and PM10 trends has been developed for social distancing periods (March– May 2020) and after May as well. The model confirms that if social distancing period is extended after May 2020 then the PM2.5 and PM10 are estimated will be 4% and 9% lower. To confirm that the PM2.5 and PM10 reductions are only due to social distancing effect, the study has investigated the possible effects of wind speed and rainfall on PM2.5 and PM10. Nonetheless, the reductions do not correlate with those factors. To conclude social distancing should be considered as an option to control PM2.5 and PM10 in urban areas.

Subject Areas

ARIMA; COVID 19; forecast; PM2.5; PM10; social distancing

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