Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Prediction of Postoperative Outcomes Following Hip Fracture Surgery: Independent Validation and Recalibration of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score

Version 1 : Received: 25 May 2020 / Approved: 26 May 2020 / Online: 26 May 2020 (11:40:33 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 8 July 2020 / Approved: 9 July 2020 / Online: 9 July 2020 (17:23:04 CEST)

How to cite: Doherty, W.J.; Stubbs, T.A.; Chaplin, A.; Reed, M.R.; Sayer, A.A.; Witham, M.D.; Sorial, A.K. Prediction of Postoperative Outcomes Following Hip Fracture Surgery: Independent Validation and Recalibration of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Preprints 2020, 2020050431 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0431.v1). Doherty, W.J.; Stubbs, T.A.; Chaplin, A.; Reed, M.R.; Sayer, A.A.; Witham, M.D.; Sorial, A.K. Prediction of Postoperative Outcomes Following Hip Fracture Surgery: Independent Validation and Recalibration of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Preprints 2020, 2020050431 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0431.v1).

Abstract

Objectives: Independent validation of risk scores after hip fracture is uncommon, particularly for evaluation of outcomes other than death. We aimed to assess the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality, physical function, length of stay and postoperative complications. Design: Analysis of routinely collected prospective data. Setting and Participants: Consecutive hip fracture patients were identified from the Northumbria hip fracture database between 2014-2018. Patients were excluded if they were not surgically managed or if scores for predictive variables were missing. Methods: C-statistics were calculated to test the discriminant ability of the NHFS, Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS), and ASA grade for in-hospital, 30- and 120-day mortality, functional independence at discharge, 30-days and 120-days, length of stay, and postoperative complications. Results We analysed data from 3208 individuals, mean age 82.6 (SD 8.6). 2192 (70.9%) were female. 194 (6.3%) died during the first 30-days, 1686 (54.5%) were discharged to their own home, 211 (6.8%) had no functional mobility at 120-days, 141 (4.6%) experienced a postoperative complication. The median length of stay was 18 days (IQR 8-28). For mortality, c-statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.68-0.69, similar to ASA and AMTS. For functional independence, the c-statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.74-0.83, similar to AMTS (0.61-0.82) and better than the ASA grade (0.68-0.71). Length of stay was significantly correlated with each score (p<0.001 by Jonckheere-Terpstra test); NHFS and AMTS showed inverted U-shaped relationships with length of stay. The best predictor of postoperative complications was ASA grade (0.56-0.64), whilst NHFS (0.49-0.59) and AMTS (0.48-0.57) performed similarly poorly. Conclusions and Implications: The NHFS performed consistently well in predicting functional outcomes, moderately in predicting mortality, but less well in predicting length of stay and complications. There remains room for improvement by adding further predictors such as measures of physical performance in future analyses.

Subject Areas

Hip fracture; Casemix; Validation; Discrimination; Risk score; Calibration

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