Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Movement Control Order to Limit the Spread of COVID-19

Version 1 : Received: 13 May 2020 / Approved: 15 May 2020 / Online: 15 May 2020 (03:47:36 CEST)

How to cite: Amiruzzaman, M.; Abdullah-Al-Wadud, M.; Mohd Nor, R.; A. Aziz, N. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Movement Control Order to Limit the Spread of COVID-19. Preprints 2020, 2020050247 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0247.v1). Amiruzzaman, M.; Abdullah-Al-Wadud, M.; Mohd Nor, R.; A. Aziz, N. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Movement Control Order to Limit the Spread of COVID-19. Preprints 2020, 2020050247 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0247.v1).

Abstract

This study presents a prediction model based on Logistic Growth Curve to evaluate the effectiveness of Movement Control Order (MCO) on COVID-19 pandemic spread. The evaluation assesses and predicts the growth models. The estimated model is a forecast-based model that depended on partial data from the COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. The model is then studied together with the effectiveness of the three phases of MCO implemented in Malaysia. Evidence from this study suggests that results of the LGC prediction model match with the progress and effectiveness of the MCO to flatten the curve, thus helped to control the spike in number of active COVID-19 cases and spread of COVID-19 infection growth.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Logistic Growth Curve; prediction; evaluation; Movement Control Order

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