Effect of temperature and lockdown on daily growth of active cases of COVID-19 in gujarat, western India.- statistical analysis.

BHAVIN Vasavada

doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0240.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 13 May 2020 / Approved: 14 May 2020 / Online: 14 May 2020 (12:08:06 CEST)

Aim of the study: Aim of he study was to analyse correlation of daily maximum temperature on corona virus daily growth rate as well as effect of lockdown on daily growth rate of cases. Materials and Methods:All the data regarding new cases of covid 19 Pandemic in Gujarat was collected from Gujarat health department website., Temperature details were collected from www.accuweather.com. Growth rate was calculated as a percent increase of new cases daily compared to previous day active cases. Relations between trends were calculated from correlation and regression studies. MANNOVA analysis was performed. Results:Total 6625 cases, 4729 active cases and 380 deaths were reported as on 6th May 2020 in Gujarat. Daily maximum temperature was significantly correlated inversely with daily growth rate. (p value= 0.010) with Pearson correlation coefficient =-0.363. Correlation between time since lock down to daily case growth rate was non significant. (p=0.123). Phases of lockdown and growth rates showed significant inverse correlation. (p=0.002). Multivariate ANOVA showed there was statistical significant difference in case growth rate based on daily temperature [p= 0.006 F=4.71] and progression of phases of lockdown (p=0.018, F=3.55). Conclusion:Conclusion increase in temperature has inverse relationship in growth rate in covid 19 pandemic. Lockdown may be useful in decreasing growth.

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Effect of temperature and lockdown on daily growth of active cases of COVID-19 in gujarat, western India.- statistical analysis.

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