Version 1
: Received: 10 May 2020 / Approved: 12 May 2020 / Online: 12 May 2020 (05:23:58 CEST)
How to cite:
Bragato, P.L. Assessment of the Weekly Fluctuations of the Covid-19 Cases in Italy and Worldwide. Preprints2020, 2020050202. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202005.0202.v1
Bragato, P.L. Assessment of the Weekly Fluctuations of the Covid-19 Cases in Italy and Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020050202. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202005.0202.v1
Bragato, P.L. Assessment of the Weekly Fluctuations of the Covid-19 Cases in Italy and Worldwide. Preprints2020, 2020050202. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202005.0202.v1
APA Style
Bragato, P.L. (2020). Assessment of the Weekly Fluctuations of the Covid-19 Cases in Italy and Worldwide. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202005.0202.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Bragato, P.L. 2020 "Assessment of the Weekly Fluctuations of the Covid-19 Cases in Italy and Worldwide" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202005.0202.v1
Abstract
The time series of daily new cases of Covid-19 infection in different zones of Italy, several European countries and New York City were analyzed in order to characterize the large fluctuations contained in them. The comparison shows that the time series share a similar evolution, although with delays of one or two weeks, with Italy that precedes the other countries. Correlation analysis indicates a strict resemblance between the time series of the first differences, which emphasize accelerations and slowdowns of the epidemic (e.g., correlation coefficient r=0.70 for Italian vs. worldwide data). According to Fourier analysis the signals have a dominant oscillatory component at a period of seven days, with minima located near the weekends. Some of the possible causes of this time modulation are discussed. In particular, it is hypothesized a delayed or missed recognition of a significant fraction of the new cases during the weekend, with possible consequences for the evolution of the epidemic.
Keywords
Covid-19 pandemic; weekly fluctuations; delayed recognition of new cases; health system situation
Subject
Public Health and Healthcare, Public Health and Health Services
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
