Preprint Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Partial Unlock Caseload Management for COVID-19 Can Save 1-2 Million Lives Worldwide

Version 1 : Received: 13 April 2020 / Approved: 15 April 2020 / Online: 15 April 2020 (10:02:51 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 16 April 2020 / Approved: 17 April 2020 / Online: 17 April 2020 (08:48:55 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 9 May 2020 / Approved: 10 May 2020 / Online: 10 May 2020 (15:14:11 CEST)
Version 4 : Received: 15 May 2020 / Approved: 16 May 2020 / Online: 16 May 2020 (16:13:16 CEST)
Version 5 : Received: 20 May 2020 / Approved: 21 May 2020 / Online: 21 May 2020 (04:13:13 CEST)

How to cite: Shuler, R.; Koukouvitis, T. Partial Unlock Caseload Management for COVID-19 Can Save 1-2 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020040239 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v2). Shuler, R.; Koukouvitis, T. Partial Unlock Caseload Management for COVID-19 Can Save 1-2 Million Lives Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020040239 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0239.v2).

Abstract

This paper analyzes the stability and usefulness of a caseload management method for COVID-19 or similar epidemics and pandemics. It reduces the total cases by controlling overshoot as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, balances medical resource utilization, and subject to those two constraints reduces economic shutdown duration across significant scenario variation. A quantitative analysis of overshoot is provided. An SIR-type model was used with clear parameters suitable for public information with tracking and predictive capabilities is used. It contains a simulation of a decision-maker for select-day partial unlock so that many scenarios can be quickly and impartially analyzed. Using certain days of the week, already practiced by some countries, is not a necessary part of the method, but was used in the simulation to give a highly quantified unlock scheme. While the model shows total cumulative cases, and therefore deaths, declining initially with flattening, when flattening begins to produce large rebounds the death rate goes back up. Partial unlock to manage critical resources had the consequential effects of reducing economic downtime and bringing the cumulative cases down about 8-12% between now and the second half of 2021, thereby saving lives with some degree of certainty. A gentle and decreasing slope of the increase in cases, which directly reduces total cases by avoiding overshoot, is difficult to accomplish by any other method.

Subject Areas

coronavirus; COVID-19; pandemic; model; partial unlock; social distancing; economic impact; ventilator utilization; SARS-CV-2; overshoot

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 17 April 2020
Commenter: Robert Shuler
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: A quantitative analysis of overshoot is presented, with literature references. Numerous editorial changes.
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