A Coastal Vulnerability Assessment due to Sea Level Rise: A Case Study of Atlantic Coast of Portugal’s Mainland

The sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowland areas will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) on the Atlantic coast of Portugal mainland. Some scenarios of extreme sea level for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Union Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis technique implemented by the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each SLR scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at national scale to identify areas most at risk of SLR, constituting key documents for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated 903 km² and 1146 km² of vulnerable area, respectively, being the district of Lisbon the most vulnerable district in both scenarios. Results are available through a Web Map Service, for Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for public and communities in general.