Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Predicting the Trend of Dissolved Oxygen based on kPCA-RNN Model

Version 1 : Received: 19 December 2019 / Approved: 25 December 2019 / Online: 25 December 2019 (10:37:27 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Zhang, Y.-F.; Fitch, P.; Thorburn, P.J. Predicting the Trend of Dissolved Oxygen Based on the kPCA-RNN Model. Water 2020, 12, 585. Zhang, Y.-F.; Fitch, P.; Thorburn, P.J. Predicting the Trend of Dissolved Oxygen Based on the kPCA-RNN Model. Water 2020, 12, 585.

Journal reference: Water 2020, 12, 585
DOI: 10.3390/w12020585

Abstract

Water quality forecasting is increasingly significant for agricultural management and environmental protection. Enormous amounts of water quality data are increasingly being collected by advanced sensors, which leads to an interest in using data-driven models for predicting trends in water quality. However, the unpredictable background noises introduced during water quality monitoring seriously degrade the performance of those models. Meanwhile, artificial neural networks (ANN) with feed-forward architecture lack the capability of maintaining and utilizing the accumulated temporal information, which leads to biased predictions in processing time series data. Hence, we propose a water quality predictive model based on a combination of Kernal Principal Component Analysis (kPCA) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to forecast the trend of dissolved oxygen. Water quality variables are reconstructed based on kPCA method, which aims to reduce the noise from the raw sensory data and preserve actionable information. With the RNN's recurrent connections, our model can make use of the previous information in predicting the trend in the future. Data collected from Burnett River, Australia was applied to evaluate our kPCA-RNN model. The kPCA-RNN model achieved R2 scores up to 0.908, 0.823 and 0.671 for predicting the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the upcoming 1, 2 and 3 hours, respectively. Compared to current data-driven methods like ANN and SVR, the predictive accuracy of the kPCA-RNN model was at least 8 %, 17 % and 21 % better than the comparative models in these 3 cases. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the kPAC-RNN modeling technique in predicting water quality variables with noisy sensory data.

Subject Areas

water quality; machine learning; Recurrent Neural Network; PCA

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