Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach

Version 1 : Received: 27 July 2019 / Approved: 29 July 2019 / Online: 29 July 2019 (04:41:57 CEST)

How to cite: Ota, Y.; Mizutani, N. Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach. Preprints 2019, 2019070329 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201907.0329.v1). Ota, Y.; Mizutani, N. Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach. Preprints 2019, 2019070329 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201907.0329.v1).

Abstract

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

Subject Areas

societal booms model; time delay; Bayesian inference approach

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