Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach

Yasushi Ota; Naoki Mizutani

doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0329.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 27 July 2019 / Approved: 29 July 2019 / Online: 29 July 2019 (04:41:57 CEST)

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

societal booms model; time delay; Bayesian inference approach

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Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach

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