Forecasting Events in the Chaotic Dynamics of a Fiber Laser

Being able to forecast events is of great importance in many fields, from brain behavior to earthquakes or stock markets. Because each dynamical system has intrinsic features, different statistical tools have to be used for each system. Here we study the time series of the output intensity of a fiber laser with an ordinal patterns analysis, and we look for temporal correlations in order to statistically forecast the most intense events. We set two thresholds, a low one and a high one, to distinguish between low intensity versus high intensity events. We find that when the time series is performing events below the low threshold it shows some preferred temporal patterns before performing events above a high threshold.