Article
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What Moves the Labor Force Participation Rate?
Version 1
: Received: 5 October 2018 / Approved: 8 October 2018 / Online: 8 October 2018 (05:00:18 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Bernstein, D.H.; Martinez, A.B. Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment. Econometrics 2021, 9, 46. Bernstein, D.H.; Martinez, A.B. Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment. Econometrics 2021, 9, 46.
Abstract
The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force participation rate, the sum of employed and unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian non-institutional population, is analysed in the general to specific modelling framework with a saturating set of step indicators from January 1977 through June 2018. The results indicate that, ceteris paribus, the rise in the ratio of women to men in the labor force in addition to positive demographic movements can largely account for the rise in the labor force participation rate up to January 2000. Subsequently, the aging population helps to explain the decline. Recessions play a transitory role.
Keywords
labor force participation rate; general to specific modelling; step indicator saturation
Subject
Business, Economics and Management, Economics
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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